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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 4.10 assumptions for fossil fuel phase out More than 80% of the current energy supply is based on fossil fuels. Oil dominates the entire transport sector; oil and gas make up the heating sector and coal is the most-used fuel for power. 4 Each sector has different renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies combinations which depend on the locally available resources, infrastructure and to some extent, lifestyle. The renewable energy technology pathways used in this scenario are based on currently available “off-the-shelf” technologies, market situations and market projections developed from renewable industry associations such as the Global Wind Energy Council, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association and the European Renewable Energy Council, the DLR and Greenpeace International. In line with this modelling, the Energy [R]evolution aims to map out a clear pathway to phase-out oil and gas in the long term.This pathway has been identified on the basis of a detailed analysis of the global conventional oil resources, current infrastructure of those industries, the estimated production capacities of existing oil wells in the light of projected production decline rates and the investment plans known by end 2011.Those remaining fossil fuel resources between 2012 and 2050 form the oil pathway so no new deep sea and Arctic oil exploration, no oil shale and tar sand mining are required for two reasons: • First and foremost, to limit carbon emissions to save the climate. • Second, financial resources must flow from 2012 onwards in the development of new and larger markets for renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency to avoid “locking-in” new fossil fuel infrastructure. 4.10.1 oil – production decline assumptions Figure 4.4 shows the remaining production capacities with an annual production decline between 2.5% and 5% and the additional production capacities assuming all new projects planned for 2012 to 2020 will go ahead. Even with new projects, the amount of remaining conventional oil is very limited and therefore a transition towards a low oil demand pattern is essential. 4.10.2 coal – production decline assumptions While there is an urgent need for a transition away from oil and gas to avoid “locking-in” investments in new production wells, the climate is the clearly limiting factor for the coal resource, not its availability. All existing coal mines – even without new expansions of mines – could produce more coal, but its burning puts the world on a catastrophic climate change pathway. figure 4.5: coal scenario: base decline of 2% per year and new projects figure 4.4: global oil production 1950 to 2011 and projection till 2050 E[R] OIL DEMAND E[R] COAL DEMAND 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 PJ/a 0 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 PJ/a 0 68 • NEW • NEW • NEW • PRODUCTION DECLINE UNCERTAINTY • GLOBAL PRODUCTION • NEW PROJECTS • FSU • AFRICA • LATIN AMERICA • NON OECD ASIA INDIA • CHINA •OECD ASIA OCEANIA •OECD EUROPE OECD NORTH AMERICA PROJECTS PROJECTS PROJECTS BITUMEN OFFSHORE ONSHORE 2000 scenarios for a future energy supply | ASSUMPTIONS FOR FOSSIL FUEL PHASE OUT 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050PDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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