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4.11 review: greenpeace scenario projections of the past Greenpeace has published numerous projections in cooperation with Renewable Industry Associations and scientific institutions in the past decade.This section provides an overview of the projections between 2000 and 2011 and compares them with real market developments and projections of the IEA World Energy Outlook – our Reference scenario. 4.11.1 the development of the global wind industry Greenpeace and the European Wind Energy Association published “Windforce 10” for the first time in 1999– a global market projection for wind turbines until 2030. Since then, an updated prognosis has been published every second year. Since 2006 the report has been renamed to “Global Wind Energy Outlook” with a new partner – the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) – a new umbrella organisation of all regional wind industry image A PRAWN SEED FARM ON MAINLAND INDIA’S SUNDARBANS COAST LIES FLOODED AFTER CYCLONE AILA. INUNDATING AND DESTROYING NEARBY ROADS AND HOUSES WITH SALT WATER. associations. Figure 4.6 shows the projections made each year between 2000 and 2010 compared to the real market data.The graph also includes the first two Energy [R]evolution (ER) editions (published in 2007 and 2008) against the IEA’s wind projections published in World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2000, 2002, 2005 and 2007. The projections from the “Wind force 10” and “Windforce 12” were calculated by BTM consultants, Denmark. “Windforce 10” (2001 - 2011) exact projection for the global wind market published during this time, at 10% below the actual market development. Also all following editions where around 10% above or below the real market. In 2006, the new “Global Wind Energy Outlook” had two different scenarios, a moderate and an advanced wind power market projections calculated by GWEC and Greenpeace International. The figures here show only the advanced projections, as the moderate were too low. However, these very projections were the most criticised at the time, being called “over ambitious” or even “impossible”. 4 figure 4.6: wind power: short term prognosis vs real market development - global cummulative capacity 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 MW 0 REAL WF 10 (1999) WF 12 (2002) GWEO 2006 (Advanced) GWEO 2008 (Advanced) ER 2007 ER 2008 ADVANCED ER 2010 IEA WEO 2000 (REF) IEA WEO 2002 (REF) IEA WEO 2005 (REF) IEA WEO 2007 (REF) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 39,431 47,620 59,091 33,371 41,781 52,715 44,025 57,306 73,908 21,930 23,440 24,950 34,088 37,075 40,063 2006 2007 74,052 93,820 66,929 85,407 94,660 120,600 151,728 189,081 26,460 27,970 29,480 30,990 43,050 46,038 49,025 52,013 2008 2009 2010 197,637 181,252 233,905 153,759 186,309 156,149 163,855 32,500 55,000 107,541 123,660 17,400 23,900 31,100 21,510 26,901 120,291 109,428 158,864 140,656 17,400 18,910 20,420 31,100 59,091 68,781 78,471 88,161 97,851 93,820 103,767 113,713 69 © GP/PETER CATON scenarios for a future energy supply | REVIEW: GREENPEACE SCENARIO PROJECTIONS OF THE PASTPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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