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4.11.2 the development of the global solar photovoltaic industry Inspired by the successful work with the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), Greenpeace began working with the European Photovoltaic Industry Association to publish “Solar Generation 10” – a global market projection for solar photovoltaic technology up to 2020 for the first time in 2001. Since then, six editions have been published and EPIA and Greenpeace have continuously improved the calculation methodology with experts from both organisations. Figure 4.8 shows the actual projections for each year between 2001 and 2010 compared to the real market data, against the first two Energy [R]evolution editions (published in 2007 and 2008) and the IEA’s solar projections published in World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2000, 2002, 2005 and 2007. The IEA did not make specific projections for solar photovoltaic in the first editions analysed in the research, instead the category “Solar/Tidal/Other” are presented in Figure 4.8 and 4.9. 4 figure 4.8: photovoltaics: short term prognosis vs real market development - global cummulative capacity 45,000 image NUCLEAR REACTOR IN LIANYUNGANG, CHINA. 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 MW 0 REAL SG I 2001 SG II 2004 SG III 2006 SG IV 2007 (Advanced) SG V 2008 (Advanced) SG VI 2010 (Advanced) ER 2007 ER 2008 ADVANCED ER 2010 IEA WEO 2000 (REF) IEA WEO 2002 (REF) IEA WEO 2005 (REF) IEA WEO 2007 (REF) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1,428 1,762 2,236 2,818 3,939 5,361 2,205 2,742 3,546 4,879 2006 2007 6,956 9,550 2008 15,675 11,285 11,775 13,005 12,714 13,760 3,006 6,559 6,000 9,575 2009 22,878 17,825 18,552 20,305 20,014 20,835 4,516 7,280 6,213 9,600 2010 39,678 25,688 26,512 28,428 28,862 25,447 36,629 22,694 20,606 3,400 8,000 6,425 9,625 6,549 8,498 5,026 6,772 8,833 7,372 9,698 9,337 1,428 1,625 1,822 2,020 2,217 2,414 2,236 2,957 3,677 4,398 2,611 2,808 5,118 5,839 5,361 5,574 5,787 9550 71 © HANSEN/DREAMSTIME scenarios for a future energy supply | REVIEW: GREENPEACE SCENARIO PROJECTIONS OF THE PASTPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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