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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK In contrast to the wind projections, all the SolarGeneration projections have been too conservative.The total installed capacity in 2010 was close to 40,000 MW about 30% higher than projected in SolarGeneration published ten years earlier. Even SolarGeneration 5, published in 2008, under-estimated the 4 possible market growth of photovoltaic in the advanced scenario. In contrast, the IEA WEO 2000 estimations for 2010 were reached in 2004. The long-term projections for solar photovoltaic are more difficult than for wind because the costs have dropped significantly faster than projected. For some OECD countries, solar has reached grid parity with fossil fuels in 2012 and other solar technologies, such as concentrated solar power plants (CSP), are also headed in that direction. Therefore, future projections for solar photovoltaic do not just depend on cost improvements, but also on available storage technologies. Grid integration can actually be a bottle-neck to solar that is now expected much earlier than estimated. figure 4.9: photovoltaic: long term market projects until 2030 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 MW 0 2010 2015 2020 207,000 282,350 275,700 240,641 277,524 737,173 198,897 268,789 439,269 7,600 18,000 22,286 48,547 79,878 101,000 138,000 161,000 220,000 2030 1,271,773 1,864,219 1,844,937 727,816 921,332 1,330,243 56,000 54,625 86,055 183,723 206,000 485,000 268,000 625,000 SG I 2001 25,688 SG II 2004 26,512 SG III 2006 28,428 SG IV 2007 (Advanced) 28,862 SG V 2008 (Advanced) 25,447 SG VI 2010 (Advanced) 36,629 ER 2007 22,694 ER 2008 20,606 ADVANCED ER 2010 IEA WEO 2000 (REF) 3,400 IEA WEO 2002 (REF) 8,000 IEA WEO 2005 (REF) 6,425 IEA WEO 2007 (REF) 9,625 IEA WEO 2009 (REF) 22,878 IEA WEO 2010 (REF) 39,678 IEA WEO 2010 (450ppm) 39,678 IEA WEO 2011 (REF) 67,300 IEA WEO 2011 (450ppm) 67,300 75,600 102,400 134,752 151,486 179,442 74,325 107,640 5,500 13,000 14,356 22,946 44,452 70,339 88,839 114,150 143,650 72 scenarios for a future energy supply | REVIEW: GREENPEACE SCENARIO PROJECTIONS OF THE PASTPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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