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4.12 how does the energy [r]evolution scenario compare to other scenarios? The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a ground-breaking new “Special Report on Renewables” (SRREN) in May 2011.This report showed the latest and most comprehensive analysis of scientific reports on all renewable energy resources and global scientifically accepted energy scenarios.The Energy [R]evolution was among three scenarios chosen as an indicative scenario for an ambitious renewable energy pathway.The following summarises the IPCC’s view. Four future pathways, from the following models were assessed intensively: • International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2009, (IEA WEO 2009) • Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution 2010, (ER 2010) • (ReMIND-RECIPE) • (MiniCam EMF 22) The World Energy Outlook of the International Energy Agency was used as an example baseline scenario (least amount of development of renewable energy) and the other three treated as “mitigation scenarios”, to address climate change risks. The four scenarios provide substantial additional information on a number of technical details, represent a range of underlying assumptions and follow different methodologies.They provide different renewable energy deployment paths, including Greenpeace’s “optimistic application path for renewable energy assuming that . . . the current high dynamic (increase rates) in the sector can be maintained”. image AERIAL VIEW OF SUNCOR MILLENNIUM TAR SANDS MINE, UPGRADER AND TAILINGS POND IN THE BOREAL FOREST NORTH OF FORT MCMURRAY. The IPCC notes that scenario results are determined partly by assumptions, but also might depend on the underlying modelling architecture and model specific restrictions.The scenarios analysed use different modelling architectures, demand projections and technology portfolios for the supply side.The full results are provided in Table 4.15, but in summary: • The IEA baseline has a high demand projection with low renewable energy development. • ReMind-RECIPE, MiniCam EMF 22 scenarios portrays a high demand expectation and significant increase of renewable energy is combined with the possibility to employ CCS and nuclear. • The ER 2010 relies on and low demand (due to a significant increase of energy efficiency) combined with high renewable energy deployment, no CCS employment and a global nuclear phase-out by 2045. Both population increase and GDP development are major driving forces on future energy demand and therefore at least indirectly determining the resulting shares of renewable energy. The IPCC analysis shows which models use assumptions based on outside inputs and what results are generated from within the models. All scenarios take a 50% increase of the global population into account on baseline 2009. Regards gross domestic product (GDP), all assume or calculate a significant increase in terms of the GDP. The IEA WEO 2009 and the ER 2010 model uses forecasts of International Monetary Fund (IMF 2009) and the Organisation of Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) as inputs to project GSP.The other two scenarios calculate GDP from within their model. 4 table 4.15: overview of key parameter of the illustrative scenarios based on assumptions that are exogenous to the models respective endogenous model results CATEGORY SCENARIO NAME MODEL Technology pathway STATUS QUO UNIT 2007 BASELINE CAT III+IV (>450-660PPM) ReMind ReMind CAT I+II (<440 PPM) CAT I+II (<440 PPM) Population billion GDP/capita k$2005/capita 6.67 8.31 8.31 10.9 17.4 17.4 469 674 674 6.5 4.5 4.5 13 14 14 27.4 38.5 38.5 58.4 57.1 57.1 8.82 8.31 9.15 13.9 17.4 24.3 690 501 466 5.6 3.3 1.8 24 31 39 77 29.9 12.4 18.4 3.3 49.2 18.0 36.7 7.1 Input/Indogenous model results Energy demand (direct equivalent) Energy intensity Renewable energy Fossil & industrial CO2 emissions Carbon intensity source EJ/yr MJ/$2005 % Gt CO2/y kg CO2/GJ 608 7.8 IEA WEO 2009 MiniCam EMF 22 ER 2010 MESAP/PlaNet 2030 2050(1) 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 al all generec generec generec solar - >no ocean all all solar solar no ocean energy energy Renewables CCS ++++++-- Nuclear +++++++- 8.32 9.19 12.4 18.2 590 674 5.7 4.0 32 48 26.6 15.8 45.0 23.5 8.07 9.7 DLR/IEA 2010: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 does not cover the years 2031 till 2050. As the IEA’s projection only covers a time horizon up to 2030 for this scenario exercise, an extrapolation of the scenario has been used which was provided by the German Aerospace Agency (DLR) by extrapolating the key macroeconomic and energy indicators of the WEO 2009 forward to 2050 (Publication filed in June 2010 to Energy Policy). 73 © JIRI REZAC/GP scenarios for a future energy supply | HOW DOES THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO COMPARE TO OTHER SCENARIOSPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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