SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK

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SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK ( sustainable-world-energy-outlook )

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The development of future global energy demand is determined by three key factors: • Population development: the number of people consuming energy or using energy services. • Economic development, for which Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most commonly used indicator: in general an increase in GDP triggers an increase in energy demand. • Energy intensity: how much energy is required to produce a unit of GDP. The Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario are based on the same projections of population and economic development. The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the reference and the alternative case, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution scenario. global: projection of energy intensity An increase in economic activity and a growing population does not necessarily have to result in an equivalent increase in energy demand.There is still a large potential for exploiting energy efficiency measures. Under the Reference scenario we assume that energy intensity will be reduced by 1.7% on average per year, leading to a reduction in final energy demand per unit of GDP of image FOREST CREEK WIND FARM PRODUCING 2.3 MW WITH WIND TURBINES MADE BY SIEMENS. A WORKER WORKING ON TOP OF THE WIND TURBINE. about 50% between 2009 and 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario it is assumed that active policy and technical support for energy efficiency measures will lead to an even higher reduction in energy intensity of almost 70% until 2050. 5 global: development of global energy demand Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development pathways for the world’s energy demand.These are shown in Figure 5.2 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand increases by 61% from 499,024 PJ/a in 2009 to about 805,600 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, demand increases by 10% until 2020 and decreases by 4% afterwards and it is expected by 2050 to reach 481,050 PJ/a. The accelerated increase in energy efficiency, which is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a sufficiently large share of renewable energy sources in our energy supply, is beneficial not only for the environment but also for economics.Taking into account the full lifecycle costs, in most cases the implementation of energy efficiency measures saves money compared to creating an additional energy supply. A dedicated energy efficiency strategy therefore helps to compensate in part for the additional costs required during the market introduction phase of renewable energy technologies. figure 5.1: global: final energy intensity under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 0.5 MJ/$GDP 0.0 • REFERENCE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 75 © GP/ZENIT/LANGROCK key results | GLOBAL - PROJECTION OF ENERGY INTENSITY & ENERGY DEMAND

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