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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK global GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA global: electricity generation The development of the electricity supply market is charaterised by 5 adynamicallygrowingrenewableenergymarket.Thiswill compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 94% of the electricity produced worldwide will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, PV and geothermal energy – will contribute 60% of electricity generation.The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate market development with high annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 37% already by 2020 and 61% by 2030.The installed capacity of renewables will reach 7,400 GW in 2030 and 15,100 GW by 2050. Table 5.1 shows the global development of the different renewable technologies over time. Up to 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from photovoltaics solar thermal (CSP), ocean energy and bioenergy.The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 31% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity will be required.The further expanison of conventional power plants - especially coal in China and India needs to slow down immediately and peak no later than 2025 in order to avoid long term lock-in effects in coal the the related long term CO2 emissions in the power sector. table 5.1: global: renewable electricity generation capacity under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW 2009 2020 1,250 1,246 98 162 525 1,357 18 65 124 674 11 166 1 54 2,028 3,724 2030 2040 2050 1,425 1,564 1,695 1,347 1,428 1,484 155 215 272 265 390 490 754 959 1,135 2,908 4,287 5,236 27 37 47 219 446 666 234 351 471 1,764 3,335 4,548 24 40 62 714 1,362 2,054 4 13 18 176 345 610 2,622 3,179 3,699 7,392 11,594 15,088 Hydro REF E[R] 995 Biomass Wind Geothermal PV CSP Ocean energy Total 995 REF 51 E[R] 51 REF 147 E[R] 147 REF 11 E[R] 11 REF 19 E[R] 19 REF 0 E[R] 0 REF 0 E[R] 0 REF 1,224 key results | GLOBAL - ELECTRICITY GENERATION E[R] 1,224 figure 5.6: global: electricity generation structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 TWh/a 0 •OCEAN ENERGY • •SOLAR THERMAL • GEOTHERMAL • BIOMASS •PV • WIND • HYDRO • NUCLEAR • DIESEL • OIL •NATURAL GAS • LIGNITE COAL 78 REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF 2050 E[R]PDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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