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image 23 YEAR OLD PARMARAM WORKS ON THE REVERSE OSMOSIS PLANT, AT THE MANTHAN CAMPUS IN KOTRI RAJASTHAN, INDIA. PARMARAM IS A DALIT AND HE GOT HIS PRIMARY EDUCATION AT THE NIGHT SCHOOL. AFTER SCHOOL, HE UNDERTOOK TRAINING IN CARPENTRY, FOLLOWED BY TRAINING IN WATER TESTING AND AS A BAREFOOT SOLAR ENGINEER. HE ASSEMBLES, INSTALLS AND REPAIRS SOLAR LANTERNS AND FIXED SOLAR UNITS FOR VILLAGERS WHO NEED THEM. HE HAS ALSO BEEN OPERATING THE SOLAR-POWERED REVERE OSMOSIS PLANT AT MANTHAN CAMPUS. image WORKERS AT DAFENG POWER STATION, CHINA’S LARGEST SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC-WIND HYBRID POWER STATION, WITH 220MW OF GRID-CONNECTED CAPACITY, OF WHICH 20 MW IS SOLAR PV. LOCATED IN YANCHENG, JIANGSU PROVINCE, IT CAME INTO OPERATION ON DECEMBER 31, 2010 AND HAS 1,100 ANNUAL UTILIZATION HOURS. EVERY YEAR IT CAN GENERATE 23 MILLION KW-H OF ELECTRICITY, ALLOWING IT TO SAVE 7,000 TONS OF COAL AND 18,600 TONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS. global: future costs of electricity generation Figure 5.7 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightly increases the costs of electricity generation compared to the Reference scenario.This difference will be less than $ 0.6 cent/kWh up to 2020. Any increase in fossil fuel prices beyond the projection given in table 4.3, however, will reduce the gap. Because of the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generation costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 7.9 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version. Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 2,364 billion per year to about $ 8,830 billion in 2050. Figure 5.7 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to enewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are 22% lower in 2050 than in the Reference scenario (including estimated costs for efficiency measures up to $ 4 ct/kWh). figure 5.7: global: total electricity supply costs and specific electricity generation costs under two scenarios Bn$/a ct/kWh 10,000 18 global: future investments in the power sector The overall global level of investment required in new power plants up to 2030 will be in the region of $ 11.5 trillion in the Reference case and $ 20.1 trillion in the Energy [R]evolution. A major driving force for investment in new generation capacity will be the replacement of the ageing fleet of power plants in OECD countries and the build up of new power plants in developing countries. Utilities and new players such as project developers and independent power producers base their technology choices on current and future equipment costs and national energy policies, in particular market liberalisation, renewable energy and CO2 reductiontargets.WithinEurope,theEUemissionstrading scheme could have a major impact on whether the majority of investment goes into fossil fueled power plants or renewable energy and co-generation. In developing countries, international financial institutions will play a major role in future technology choices, as well as whether the investment costs for renewable energy become competitive with conventional power plants. In regions with a good wind regime, for example, wind farms can already produce electricity at the same cost levels as coal or gas power plants. While solar photovoltaics already reach ‘grid parity’ in many industrialized countries. It would require about $ 50,400 billion in investment in the power sector for the Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately $ 714 billion annual more than in the Reference scenario. Under the Reference version, the levels of investment in conventional power plants add up to almost 49% while approximately 51% would be invested in renewable energy and cogeneration (CHP) until 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario the global investment would shift by 95% towards renewables and cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share of power sector investment would be focused mainly on CHP plants. The average annual investment in the power sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would be $ 1,260 billion. 5 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 00 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF) •‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES •REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF) ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R]) SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R]) 79 © P. VISHWANATHAN/GP © GP/ZHIYONG FU key results | GLOBAL - ELECTRICITY GENERATION & FUTURE INVESTMENTSPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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