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image TRAFFIC JAM IN BANGKOK, THAILAND. image 100 KW PV GENERATING PLANT NEAR BELLINZONA-LOCARNO RAILWAY LINE. GORDOLA, SWITZERLAND. global: transport In the transport sector it is assumed that, due to fast growing demand for services, energy consumption will continue to increase under the Energy [R]evolution scenario up to 2020. After that it will decrease, falling below the level of the current demand by 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, transport energy demand is reduced overall by 60% or about 90,000 PJ/a by 2050. Energy demand for transport under the Energy [R]evolution scenario will therefore increase between 2009 and 2050 by 26% to about 60,000 PJ/a. Significant savings are made by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility-related behaviour patterns. Implementing a mix of increased public transport as attractive alternatives to individual cars, the car stock is growing slower and annual person kilometres are lower than in the Reference scenario. A shift towards smaller cars triggered by economic incentives together with a significant shift in propulsion technology towards electrified power trains and a reduction of vehicle kilometres travelled per year lead to significant energy savings. In 2030, electricity will provide 12% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050 the share will be 44%. table 5.6: global: transport energy demand by mode under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (WITHOUT ENERGY FOR PIPELINE TRANSPORT) IN PJ/A Rail REF E[R] Road REF E[R] Domestic REF aviation E[R] Domestic REF navigation E[R] Total REF E[R] 2009 2,483 2,483 71,229 71,229 3,994 3,994 1,685 1,685 2020 3,199 3,435 86,995 74,491 5,195 4,775 2,089 2,016 2030 3,641 3,987 101,380 65,222 6,142 5,159 2,454 2,200 113,617 76,568 2040 4,181 4,438 115,163 51,348 7,715 5,941 2,853 2,337 129,912 64,063 2050 5 4,671 4,849 129,096 45,586 10,289 7,115 3,394 2,364 147,450 59,914 79,391 79,391 84,718 97,479 figure 5.13: global: final energy consumption for transport under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • • HYDROGEN • ELECTRICITY • BIOFUELS •NATURAL GAS OIL PRODUCTS REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] REF 2040 2050 E[R] 85 © GP/A. SRISOMWONGWATHANA © GP/MARTIN BOND key results | GLOBAL - TRANSPORTPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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