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image COWS FROM A FARM WITH A BIOGAS PLANT IN ITTIGEN BERN, SWITZERLAND. THE FARMER PETER WYSS PRODUCES ON HIS FARM WITH A BIOGAS PLANT, GREEN ELECTRICITY WITH DUNG FROM COWS, LIQUID MANURE AND WASTE FROM FOOD PRODUCTION. image SMOKE BILLOWING FROM THE CHIMNEY AT THE MARSHALL STEAM STATION IN CATAWBA COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA. THIS COAL-FIRED POWER STATION HAS A 2,090-MEGAWATT GENERATING CAPACITY AND EMITS 14.5 MILLION TONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE ANNUALLY. global: development of CO2 emissions Whilst worldwide CO2 emissions will increase by 62% in the Reference scenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will decrease from 27,925 million tonnes in 2009 to 3,076 million tonnes in 2050 (excluding international bunkers). Annual per capita emissions will drop from 4.1 tonnes to 2.4 tonnes in 2030 and 0.3 tonne in 2050. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles will even reduce emissions in the transport sector. With a share of 23% of CO2 emissions in 2050, the power sector will drop below transport as the largest source of emissions. By 2050, global CO2 emissions are 15% of 1990 levels. global: energy related CO2 emissions from bio energy The Energy [R]evolution scenario is an energy scenario, therefore only direct energy related CO2 emissions of combustion processes are calculated and presented. Greenpeace estimates that also sustainable bio energy may result in indirect CO2 emissions in the range of 10% to 40% of the replaced fossil fuels, leading to additional CO2 emissions between 358 and 1,432 million tonnes by 2050 (see also Bio Energy disclaimer in Chapter 8). figure 5.15: global: regional breakdown of CO2 emissions in the energy [r]evolution in 2050 12% 5% 7% 6% 5% 14% 8% 9% 6% 28% figure 5.16: global: development of CO2 emissions by sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) AFRICA OECD ASIA OCEANIA OECD NORTH AMERICA OECD EUROPE LATIN AMERICA INDIA EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA NON OECD ASIA MIDDLE EAST CHINA 12% 21% 7% 10% 21% 29% INTERNATIONAL BUNKERS INDUSTRY OTHER CONVERSION OTHER SECTORS POWER GENERATION TRANSPORT Mill t/a 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Million people 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 5 00 REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 • POPULATION DEVELOPMENT • SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLES • OTHER SECTORS • INDUSTRY • TRANSPORT POWER GENERATION figure 5.17: global: CO2 emissions by sector in the energy [r]evolution in 2050 87 © GP/EX-PRESS/M. FORTE © LES STONE/GP key results | GLOBAL - CO2 EMISSIONSPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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