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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK oecd north america GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA oecd north america: electricity generation energy demand by sector The future development pathways for OECD North America’s 5 energy demand are shown in Figure 5.18 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in OECD North America increases by 16% from the current 108,501 PJ/a to 108,501 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, by contrast, energy demand decreases by 33% compared to current consumption and it is expected by 2050 to reach 73,000 PJ/a. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industrial, residential, and service sectors is expected to fall slightly below the current level (see Figure 5.19). In the transport sector - for both freight and persons - a shift towards electric trains and public transport as well as efficient electric vehicle is expected. Fossil fuels for industrial process heat generation are also phased out more quickly and replaced by electric heat pumps, solar energy, electric direct heating and hydrogen. This means that electricity demand (final energy) in the Energy [R]evolution scenario increases in the industry, residential, service, and transport sectors and reaches 4,082 TWh/a in 2050, still 36% below the Reference case. figure 5.18: oecd north america: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector allow a significant reduction of the heat demand relative to the reference case. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, heat demand can even be reduced significantly (see Figure 5.21) compared to the Reference scenario: Heat production equivalent to 2,283 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050. 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • •OTHER SECTORS • INDUSTRY TRANSPORT 88 REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050 key results | OECD NORTH AMERICA - DEMANDPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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