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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK oecd north america GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA oecd north america: electricity generation The development of the electricity supply market is charaterised 5 byadynamicallygrowingrenewableenergymarketandan increasing share of renewable electricity.This will compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 97% of the electricity produced in OECD North America will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 84% of electricity generation.The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate market development with higher annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 42% by 2020 and 75% by 2030.The installed capacity of renewables will reach 1,721 GW in 2030 and 2,780 GW by 2050. Table 5.7 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in OECD North America over time. Up to 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by elelctricty mainly from photovoltaics, solar thermal (CSP), and geothermal energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation source (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 43% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management. MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA table 5.7: oecd north america: renewable electricity generation capacity under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 197 204 208 214 217 224 224 224 23 36 49 59 20 26 34 40 109 150 192 241 386 759 961 1,011 6 9 10 12 23 59 93 107 22 39 51 55 132 384 552 639 3 7 12 22 46 218 467 651 0 1 1 2 20 51 89 108 361 445 523 606 843 1,721 2,420 2,780 Hydro REF E[R] 187 Biomass Wind Geothermal PV CSP Ocean energy Total 187 REF 15 E[R] 15 REF 39 E[R] 39 REF 4 E[R] 4 REF 2 E[R] 2 REF 0 E[R] 0 REF 0 E[R] 0 REF 247 key results | OECD NORTH AMERICA - ELECTRICITY GENERATION figure 5.22: oecd north america: electricity generation structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 TWh/a 0 •OCEAN ENERGY •SOLAR THERMAL • GEOTHERMAL • BIOMASS •PV • WIND • HYDRO • NUCLEAR • DIESEL • OIL •NATURAL GAS • LIGNITE COAL E[R] 247 90 REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050PDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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