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image CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER (CSP) AT A SOLAR FARM IN DAGGETT, CALIFORNIA, USA. image AN OFFSHORE DRILLING RIG DAMAGED BY HURRICANE KATRINA, GULF OF MEXICO. oecd north america: future costs of electricity generation Figure 5.23 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightly increases the costs of electricity generation in OECD North America compared to the Reference scenario.This difference will be less than $ 1 cent/kWh up to 2030, however. Because of the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generation costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 6.5 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version. Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 565 billion per year to about $ 1,290 billion in 2050. Figure 5.23 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with OECD North America’s CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are more than one third than in the Reference scenario. figure 5.23: oecd north america: total electricity supply costs and specific electricity generation costs under two scenarios Bn$/a ct/kWh 1,400 18 1,200 16 14 1,000 12 more than in the Reference scenario ($ 3,928 billion). Under the Reference version, the levels of investment in conventional power plants adds up to almost 55% while approximately 45% would be invested in renewable energy and cogeneration until 2050. 5 Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, North America would shift almost 95% of the entire investment towards renewables and cogeneration. Until 2030 the fossil fuel share of power sector investment would be focused mainly on combined heat and power plants.The average annual investment in the power sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would be approximately $ 245 billion. Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, however, the fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of $ 5,775 billion, or $ 144.4 billion per year. The total fuel cost savings therefore would cover 98% of the total additional investments compared to the reference scenario.These renewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coal and gas will continue to be a burden on national economies. figure 5.24: oecd north america: investment shares - reference scenario versus energy [r]evolution scenario 00 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF) •‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES •REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF) ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R]) oecd north america: future investments in the power sector 2050 REF 2011 - 2050 800 600 400 200 10 8 6 4 2 Total $ 3,928 billion 6% CHP 39% RENEWABLES 20% NUCLEAR 35% FOSSIL 5% FOSSIL 4% CHP 91% RENEWABLES SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R]) E[R] 2011 - 2050 Total $ 9,800 billion It would require $ 9,800 billion in investment for the Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (through 2050, including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately $ 5,872 billion or $ 147 billion per year 91 © VISSER/GP © LPM/DREAMSTIME key results | OECD NORTH AMERICA - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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