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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK oecd north america GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA oecd north america: heating supply Renewables currently provide 11% of North America’s energy heat 5 demand,themaincontributioncomingfrombiomass.Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic future development. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 88% of North America’s total heat demand in 2050. • Energy efficiency measures can decrease the heat demand by 9% in 2050 compared to the Reference scenario, in spite of improving living standards. • For direct heating, solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well as geothermal energy are increasingly substituting for fossil fuel- fired systems. • A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications will lead to a further reduction of CO2 emissions. The Energy [R]evolution case introduces renewable heating systems around 5 years ahead of the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Solar collectors and geothermal heating systems achieve economies of scale via ambitious support programmes 5 to 10 years earlier and reach a share of 52% by 2030 and 96% by 2050. Table 5.8 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heating in North America over time. Up to 2020 biomass will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share of geothermal heat pumps will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA table 5.8: oecd north america: renewable heating capacities under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW Biomass REF E[R] 2009 2020 2,052 2,788 2,052 2,705 64 154 64 1,272 14 31 14 1,227 00 0 271 2,130 2,973 2030 2040 3,093 3,331 2,837 2,764 330 620 4,303 6,751 60 143 3,742 6,527 0 0 873 1,605 3,483 4,094 2050 3,511 2,288 796 7,874 193 9,007 0 1,976 Solar collectors Geothermal Hydrogen Total REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF 4,500 5,475 11,755 17,647 21,146 E[R] 2,130 figure 5.25: oecd north america: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • HYDROGEN • GEOTHERMAL • SOLAR • BIOMASS FOSSIL 92 REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] REF 2040 E[R] 2050 key results | OECD NORTH AMERICA - HEATINGPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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