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image GROUP OF YOUNG PEOPLE FEEL THE HEAT GENERATED BY A SOLAR COOKING STOVE IN BRAZIL. image IN 2005 THE WORST DROUGHT IN MORE THAN 40 YEARS DAMAGED THE WORLD’S LARGEST RAIN FOREST IN THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON, WITH WILDFIRES BREAKING OUT, POLLUTED DRINKING WATER AND THE DEATH OF MILLIONS FISH AS STREAMS DRY UP. latin america: future costs of electricity generation Figure 5.36 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightly increases the costs of electricity generation in Latin America compared to the Reference scenario.This difference will be less than $ 0.3 cent/kWh up to 2030, however. Because of the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generation costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 7.2 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version. Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 81 billion per year to more than $ 382 billion in 2050. Figure 5.36 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario complies with Latin America’s CO2 reduction targets without increasing energy costs. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are in the same range as in the Reference scenario in 2050. figure 5.36: latin america: total electricity supply costs and specific electricity generation costs under two scenarios more than in the Reference scenario ($ 1,107 billion). Under the Reference version, the levels of investment in conventional power plants add up to almost 24% while approximately 76% would be invested in renewable energy and cogeneration (CHP) until 2050. 5 Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, Latin America would shift almost 98% of the entire investment towards renewables and cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share of power sector investment would be focused mainly on CHP plants. The average annual investment in the power sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would be approximately $ 67 billion. Because renewable energy except biomasss has no fuel costs, however, the fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of $ 1,400 billion up to 2050, or $ 35 billion per year. The total fuel cost savings therefore would cover 90% of the total additional investments compared to the Reference scenario.These renewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coal and gas will continue to be a burden on national economies. figure 5.37: latin america: investment shares - reference scenario versus energy [r]evolution scenario Bn$/a 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 •‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES •REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF) ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R]) ct/kWh 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 REF 2011 - 2050 Total $ 1,107 billion E[R] 2011 - 2050 Total $ 2,660 billion 3% CHP 5% NUCLEAR 19% FOSSIL 73% RENEWABLES 2% FOSSIL 13% CHP 85% RENEWABLES 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF) SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R]) latin america: future investments in the power sector It would require $ 2,660 billion in investment in the power sector for the Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately $ 1,553 billion or $ 39 billion annually 101 © GP/FLAVIO CANNALONGA © GP/ANA CLAUDIA JATAHY key results | LATIN AMERICA - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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