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SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK

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SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK ( sustainable-world-energy-outlook )

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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK latin america GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA latin america: heating supply Renewables currently provide 38% of Latin America’s energy 5 demandforheatsupply,themaincontributioncomingfromthe use of biomass.The lack of district heating networks is a severe structural barrier to the large scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 67% of Latin America’s total heat demand in 2030 and 97% in 2050. • Energy efficiency measures can restrict the future primary energy demand for heat supply to a 29% increase, in spite of improving living standards. • In the industry sector solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well as geothermal energy are increasingly replacing conventional fossil fuelled heating systems. • A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications leads to a further reduction of CO2 emissions. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario about 2,370 PJ/a are saved by 2050, or 25% compared to the Reference scenario. Table 5.14 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heating in Latin America over time. Biomass will remain the main contributor for renewable heat. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share of geothermal heat (including heat pumps) will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. table 5.14: latin america: renewable heating capacities under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW figure 5.38: latin america: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • HYDROGEN • GEOTHERMAL • SOLAR • BIOMASS FOSSIL 2009 2020 2030 2,089 2,452 2,626 2040 2,801 3,529 126 1,262 2050 2,902 3,451 209 1,465 Biomass REF E[R] 2,089 2,679 3,117 Solar collectors REF 17 42 72 E[R] 17 461 840 Geothermal Hydrogen REF 00000 REF 0 3 7 E[R] 0 257 563 15 1,213 25 1,757 Total E[R] 0 71 261 REF 2,106 2,497 2,705 E[R] 2,106 3,467 4,781 322 2,941 6,327 303 3,136 6,976 102 REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050 key results | LATIN AMERICA - HEATING

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