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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK latin america GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA latin america: development of CO2 emissions While Latin America’s emissions of CO2 will almost double under the 5 Referencescenario,undertheEnergy[R]evolutionscenariotheywill decrease from 972 million tonnes in 2009 to 155 million tonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 2.1 tonnes to 1.2 tonnes in 2030 and 0.3 tonne in 2050. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles will even reduce emissions in the transport sector.With a share of 38% of CO2 emissions in 2050, the transport sector will remain the largest source of emissions. By 2050, Latin America’s CO2 emissions are 27% of 1990 levels. latin america: primary energy consumption Taking into account the assumptions discussed above, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.43. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 28% in 2050. Latin America’s primary energy demand will increase from 22,045 PJ/a to about 29,500 PJ/a. The Energy [R]evolution version phases out coal and oil about 5 to 10 years faster than the previous Energy [R]evolution scenario published in 2010.This is made possible mainly by replacement of fossil-fueled power plants with renewables and a faster introduction of very efficient electric vehicles in the transport sector to replace conventional combustion engines.This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 57% in 2030 and 85% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out before 2030. figure 5.42: latin america: development of CO2 emissions by sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) Mill t/a 2,000 Million people 600 1,600 500 1,200 800 400 400 300 200 100 00 REF E[R] 2009 REF E[R] REF E[R] 2015 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050 key results | LATIN AMERICA - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION figure 5.43: latin america: primary energy consumption under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ •OCEAN ENERGY • GEOTHERMAL • SOLAR • BIOMASS • WIND • HYDRO •NATURAL GAS • OIL • COAL NUCLEAR • POPULATION DEVELOPMENT • SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLES •OTHER SECTORS • INDUSTRY • TRANSPORT POWER GENERATION 106 REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] REF 2040 2050 E[R]PDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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