SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK

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SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK ( sustainable-world-energy-outlook )

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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK oecd europe GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA oecd europe: energy demand by sector The future development pathways for Europe’s energy demand are shown in Figure 5.44 for the Reference and the Energy 5 [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand in OECD Europe increases by 9% from the current 75,200 PJ/a to 82,080 PJ/a in 2050.The energy demand in 2050 in the Energy [R]evolution scenario decreases by 36% compared to current consumption and it is expected by 2050 to reach 47,800 PJ/a. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand in the industry as well as in the residential and service sectors is expected to decrease after 2015 (see Figure 5.45). Because of the growing shares of electric vehicles, heat pumps and hydrogen generation however, electricity demand increases to 3,470 TWh/a in 2050, still 21% below the Reference case. figure 5.44: oecd europe: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ •OTHER SECTORS • INDUSTRY TRANSPORT Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are larger than in the electricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final demand for heat supply can even be reduced significantly (see Figure 5.47). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 8,921 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050. As a result of energy-related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand. 108 REF E[R] 2009 REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050 key results | OECD EUROPE - DEMAND

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