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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK oecd europe GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA oecd europe: electricity generation The development of the electricity supply market is charaterised by 5 adynamicallygrowingrenewableenergymarket.Thiswill compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy and reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 96% of the electricity produced in OECD Europe will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, solar thermal energy and PV – will contribute 71% of electricity generation.The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate market development with high annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 49% already by 2020 and 71% by 2030.The installed capacity of renewables will reach 1038 GW in 2030 and 1,498 GW by 2050. Table 5.19 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in OECD Europe over time. Up to 2020 hydro and wind will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind will be complemented by electricity from biomass, photovoltaics and solar thermal (CSP) energy.The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 37% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and storage capacity e.g. from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management. table 5.19: oecd europe: renewable electricity generation capacity under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW Hydro REF E[R] 193 207 215 2009 2020 2030 193 210 220 2040 2050 227 234 218 219 43 49 72 70 295 313 496 516 4 5 45 53 115 152 489 518 Biomass Wind Geothermal PV REF 21 30 37 E[R] 21 48 60 REF 76 195 256 E[R] 76 276 414 REF 2 3 3 E[R] 2 8 30 REF 14 45 79 E[R] 14 197 270 key results | OECD EUROPE - ELECTRICITY GENERATION figure 5.48: oecd europe: electricity generation structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION) 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 TWh/a 0 • CSP REF 02456 Ocean energy Total E[R] 0 REF 0 E[R] 0 REF 306 12 32 0 2 3 18 486 602 55 82 9 11 31 40 E[R] 306 699 770 750 1,038 1,407 1,498 110 REF 2009 E[R] REF 2015 E[R] REF 2020 E[R] REF 2030 E[R] REF 2040 E[R] REF 2050 E[R] • GEOTHERMAL • • BIOMASS •PV • WIND • HYDRO • NUCLEAR • DIESEL OIL •NATURAL GAS • • LIGNITE COAL •OCEAN ENERGY SOLAR THERMALPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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