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image OFFSHORE WINDFARM, MIDDELGRUNDEN, COPENHAGEN, DENMARK. image MAN USING METAL GRINDER ON PART OF A WIND TURBINE MAST IN THE VESTAS FACTORY, CAMBELTOWN, SCOTLAND, GREAT BRITAIN. oecd europe: future costs of electricity generation Figure 5.49 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightly increases the costs of electricity generation in OECD Europe compared to the Reference scenario.This difference will be less than $ 1.3 cent/kWh up to 2020, however. Because of the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generation costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 6.2 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version. Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 426 billion per year to more than $ 832 billion in 2050. Figure 5.49 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with OECD Europe’s CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are 18% lower than in the Reference scenario, although costs for efficiency measures of up to $ 4 cents/kWh are taken into account. figure 5.49: oecd europe: total electricity supply costs and specific electricity generation costs under two scenarios Bn$/a ct/kWh 1,000 16 14 800 600 400 6 4 200 00 Reference version, the levels of investment in conventional power plants add up to almost 35% while approximately 65% would be invested in renewable energy and cogeneration (CHP) until 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, OECD Europe 5 would shift almost 96% of the entire investment towards renewables and cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share of power sector investment would be focused mainly on CHP plants. The average annual investment in the power sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would be approximately $ 135 billion. Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, however, the fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of $ 4,760 billion up to 2050, or $ 119 billion per year. The total fuel cost savings based on the assumed energy price path therefore would cover 230% of the total additional investments compared to the Reference scenario.These renewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coal and gas will continue to be a burden on national economies. figure 5.50: oecd europe: investment shares - reference scenario versus energy [r]evolution scenario 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF) •‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES •REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF) ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R]) 2050 12 10 8 REF 2011 - 2050 Total $ 3,335 billion E[R] 2011 - 2050 Total $ 5,400 billion 10% CHP 55% RENEWABLES 21% NUCLEAR 14% FOSSIL 4% FOSSIL + NUCLEAR 16% CHP 80% RENEWABLES 2 SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R]) oecd europe: future investments in the power sector It would require about $ 5,400 billion in investment for the Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately $ 2,065 billion or $ 52 billion annually more than in the Reference scenario ($ 3,335 billion). Under the 111 © LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP © GP/DAVISON key results | OECD EUROPE - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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