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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK oecd europe GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA oecd europe: heating supply Renewables currently provide 14% of OECD Europe’s energy 5 demandforheatsupply,themaincontributioncomingfromthe use of biomass.The lack of district heating networks is a severe structural barrier to the large scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 48% of OECD Europe’s total heat demand in 2030 and 92% in 2050. • Energy efficiency measures can decrease the current total demand for heat supply by at least 10%, in spite of growing population and economic activities and improving living standards. • For direct heating, solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well as geothermal energy are increasingly substituting for fossil fuel-fired systems. • The introduction of strict efficiency measures e.g. via strict building standards and ambitious support programs for renewable heating systems are needed to achieve economies of scale within the next 5 to 10 years. Table 5.20 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heating in OECD Europe over time. Up to 2020 biomass will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share of geothermal heat pumps will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. table 5.20: oecd europe: renewable heating capacities under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW 2009 2020 2,413 3,291 2030 3,865 4,265 332 2,697 Geothermal Hydrogen REF 00000 Biomass REF E[R] 2,413 4,170 2040 4,456 4,061 459 4,441 2050 4,907 3,580 586 5,675 Solar collectors REF 64 204 E[R] 64 954 figure 5.51: oecd europe: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • HYDROGEN • GEOTHERMAL • SOLAR • BIOMASS FOSSIL REF 186 261 E[R] 186 1,345 336 2,781 475 5,012 568 6,741 Total E[R] 0 REF 2,662 E[R] 2,662 0 3,756 6,469 1 37 204 4,533 5,390 6,061 9,744 13,551 16,199 112 REF E[R] 2009 REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050 key results | OECD EUROPE - HEATINGPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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