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SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK

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SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK ( sustainable-world-energy-outlook )

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image INSTALLATION AND TESTING OF A WINDPOWER STATION IN RYSUMER NACKEN NEAR EMDEN WHICH IS MADE FOR OFFSHORE USAGE ONSHORE. A WORKER CONTROLS THE SECURITY LIGHTS AT DARK. image THE MARANCHON WIND FARM IS THE LARGEST IN EUROPE WITH 104 GENERATORS, AND IS OPERATED BY IBERDROLA, THE LARGEST WIND ENERGY COMPANY IN THE WORLD. oecd europe: future investments in the heat sector Also in the heat sector the Energy [R]evolution scenario would require a major revision of current investment strategies in heating technologies. Especially the not yet so common solar, geothermal and heat pump technologies need enormous increase in installations, if these potentials are to be tapped for the heat sector. Installed capacity needs to be increased by a factor of 70 for solar thermal and even by the factor of 510 for geothermal and heat pumps. Capacity of biomass technologies, which are already rather wide spread still need to remain a pillar of heat supply. Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from low tech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to very sophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar thermal district heating plants with seasonal storage.Thus it can only roughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario in total requires around $ 3,896 billion to be invested in renewable heating technologies until 2050 (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately $ 97 billion per year. Due to a lack of (regional) information on costs for conventional heating systems and fuel prices, total investments and fuel cost savings for the heat supply in the scenarios have not been estimated. table 5.21: oecd europe: renewable heat generation capacities under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW figure 5.52: oecd europe: investments for renewable heat generation technologies under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario REF 2011 - 2050 Total $ 1,163 billion 23% SOLAR 19% HEAT PUMPS 0% GEOTHERMAL 58% BIOMASS E[R] 2011 - 2050 Total $ 3,896 billion 50% SOLAR 15% GEOTHERMAL 8% BIOMASS 27% HEAT PUMPS Geothermal Solar thermal Heat pumps Total REF 1 1 E[R] 1 93 REF 21 67 E[R] 21 279 REF 32 45 E[R] 32 114 REF 443 593 E[R] 443 1,009 2009 2020 390 481 2030 2040 2050 5 569 653 709 506 435 354 1 1 1 214 396 495 108 150 191 781 1,209 1,513 58 84 101 204 296 420 737 888 1,002 1,705 2,336 2,782 Biomass REF E[R] 390 523 113 © PAUL LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP © GP/DANIEL BELTRA key results | OECD EUROPE - INVESTMENT

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