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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK oecd europe GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA oecd europe: development of CO2 emissions While CO2 emissions in OECD Europe will decrease by 4% in the 5 Referencescenario,undertheEnergy[R]evolutionscenariothey will decrease from around 3,800 million tonnes in 2009 to 192 million tonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 6.8 tonnes to 2.9 tonnes in 2030 and 0.3 tonne in 2050. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles will reduce emissions in the transport sector. With a share of 28% of CO2 emissions in 2050, the power sector will drop below transport and other sectors as the largest sources of emissions. By 2050, OECD Europe’s CO2 emissions are 5% of 1990 levels. oecd europe: primary energy consumption Taking into account the assumptions discussed above, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.56. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 43% in 2050. Around 85% of the remaining demand will be covered by renewable energy sources. The Energy [R]evolution version phases out coal and oil about 10 to 15 years faster than the previous Energy [R]evolution scenario published in 2010.This is made possible mainly by the replacement of coal power plants with renewables and a faster introduction of very efficient electric vehicles in the transport sector to replace oil combustion engines.This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 46% in 2030 and 85% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out just after 2030. figure 5.55: oecd europe: development of CO2 emissions by sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) Mill t/a 4,000 Million people 600 500 3,000 400 300 200 100 00 2,000 1,000 REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] 2009 2015 2020 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050 key results | OECD EUROPE - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION figure 5.56: oecd europe: primary energy consumption under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • •OCEAN ENERGY 116 REF 2009 E[R] REF 2015 E[R] REF 2020 E[R] REF 2030 E[R] REF 2040 E[R] REF 2050 E[R] • POPULATION DEVELOPMENT • SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & •OTHER SECTORS • INDUSTRY RENEWABLES • TRANSPORT POWER GENERATION • GEOTHERMAL SOLAR • BIOMASS • • WIND • HYDRO •NATURAL GAS • OIL • COAL NUCLEARPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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