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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK africa GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA africa: development of CO2 emissions Whilst Africa’s emissions of CO2 will increase by 157% under the 5 Referencescenario,undertheEnergy[R]evolutionscenariotheywill decrease from 928 million tonnes in 2009 to 381 million tonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will increase from 0.9 tonne to 0.8 tonne in 2030 and decrease afterward to 0.2 tonne in 2050. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles will also significantly reduce emissions in the transport sector.With a share of 51% of CO2 emissions in 2050, the transport sector will be the largest energy related source of emissions.By2050,Africa’sCO2 emissionsare70%of 1990 levels. africa: primary energy consumption Taking into account the above assumptions, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.69. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 23% in 2050. Around 84% of the remaining demand will be covered by renewable energy sources. The coal demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenario will peak by 2020 with 3,700 PJ/a compared to 4,560 PJ/a in 2009 and decrease afterwards to 869 PJ/a by 2050.This is made possible mainly by replacement of coal power plants with renewables after 20 rather than 40 years lifetime.This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 63% in 2030 and 84% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out before 2030. figure 5.68: africa: development of CO2 emissions by sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) Mill t/a 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 800 600 400 200 Million people 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 key results | AFRICA - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION figure 5.69: africa: primary energy consumption under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • •OCEAN ENERGY • GEOTHERMAL • SOLAR • BIOMASS • WIND • HYDRO •NATURAL GAS • OIL • COAL NUCLEAR 500 00 REF E[R] 2009 REF E[R] REF E[R] 2015 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050 • POPULATION DEVELOPMENT •SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLES •OTHER SECTORS • INDUSTRY • TRANSPORT POWER GENERATION 126 REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050PDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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