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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK middle east GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA middle east: electricity generation The development of the electricity supply market is charaterised by 5 adynamicallygrowingrenewableenergymarket.Thiswill compensate for the phasing out of nuclear energy, reduce the number of fossil fuel-fired power plants required for grid stabilisation and will cover the demand for additionally necessary storable fuels such as hydrogen (increasing to more than 900 TWh in 2050). By 2050, 98% of the electricity produced in Middle East will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – mainly wind, PV and solar thermal energy – will contribute 94% of electricity generation.The Energy [R]evolution scenario projects an immediate market development with high annual growth rates achieving a renewable electricity share of 27% already by 2020 and 62% by 2030.The installed capacity of renewables will reach 412 GW in 2030 and 1089 GW by 2050. Table 5.31 shows the comparative evolution of the different renewable technologies in Middle East over time. Up to 2020 wind, photovoltaics and solar thermal power will overtake hydro as the main contributor of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of wind, PV and CSP will be complemented by electricity from geothermal and ocean energy. The Energy [R]evolution scenario will lead to a high share of fluctuating power generation sources (photovoltaic, wind and ocean) of 32% by 2030, therefore the expansion of smart grids, demand side management (DSM) and new storage capacities e.g. from the increased share of electric vehicles will be used for a better grid integration and power generation management. table 5.31: middle east: renewable electricity generation capacity under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW Hydro REF E[R] 2030 2040 2050 25 28 2009 2020 6 18 24 6 18 24 0 11 Biomass REF E[R] 02468 25 28 2 3 Wind REF E[R] Geothermal REF E[R] PV REF E[R] 0 2 5 10 14 0 31 106 181 283 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 16 20 0 2 8 11 16 0 47 162 340 474 key results | MIDDLE EAST - ELECTRICITY GENERATION figure 5.74: middle east: electricity generation structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (INCLUDING ELECTRICITY FOR ELECTROMOBILITY, HEAT PUMPS AND HYDROGEN GENERATION) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 TWh/a 0 •OCEAN ENERGY •SOLAR THERMAL • GEOTHERMAL • BIOMASS •PV • WIND • HYDRO • NUCLEAR • DIESEL • OIL •NATURAL GAS • LIGNITE COAL CSP REF 01346 Ocean energy Total E[R] 0 REF 0 E[R] 0 REF 6 25 102 0 0 4 9 25 42 130 412 146 235 0 0 29 41 52 67 742 1,089 E[R] 6 130 REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] REF 2040 E[R] 2050PDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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