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image THE BAHRAIN WORLD TRADE CENTER IN MANAMA GENERATES PART OF ITS OWN ENERGY USING WIND TURBINES. image SUBURBS OF DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. middle east: future costs of electricity generation Figure 5.75 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario does not increase the costs of electricity generation in Middle East compared to the Reference scenario - if fossil fuel prices and investment costs are assumed according to the pathways defined in Chapter 4. Because of the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation and the high share of gas power plants in the Reference scenario, electricity generation costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be about 20 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version. Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 146 billion per year to more than $ 751 billion in 2050. Figure 5.75 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with Middle East’s CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are 44% lower in 2050 than in the Reference scenario. figure 5.75: middle east: total electricity supply costs and specific electricity generation costs under two scenarios Bn$/a ct/kWh 800 30 700 600 500 400 15 300 Under the Reference version, the levels of investment in conventional power plants add up to almost 66% while approximately 34% would be invested in renewable energy and cogeneration (CHP) until 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolution 5 scenario, however, Middle East would shift almost 96% of the entire investment towards renewables and cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share of power sector investment would be focused mainly on CHP plants.The average annual investment in the power sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would be approximately $ 96 billion. Because renewable energy except biomass has no fuel costs, however, the fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reach a total of $ 8,281 billion up to 2050, or $ 207 billion per year.The total fuel cost savings therefore would cover 270% of the total additional investments compared to the Reference scenario.These renewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for fossil fuels will continue to be a burden on national economies. figure 5.76: middle east: investment shares - reference scenario versus energy [r]evolution scenario 200 100 5 00 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF) •‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES •REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF) ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R]) middle east: future investments in the power sector It would require $ 3,840 billion in investment for the Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately $ 3,124 billion or $ 78 billion annually more than in the Reference scenario ($ 716 billion). 25 20 10 REF 2011 - 2050 Total $ 716 billion E[R] 2011 - 2050 Total $ 3,840 billion 2% CHP 5% NUCLEAR 32% RENEWABLES 61% FOSSIL 4% FOSSIL 3% CHP 93% RENEWABLES SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R]) 131 © O. ÇAM/DREAMSTIME © S. WEIWEI/DREAMSTIME key results | MIDDLE EAST - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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