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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK middle east GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA middle east: heating supply Renewables currently provide 0.5% of Middle East’s energy 5 demandforheatsupply,themaincontributioncomingfromthe use of biomass. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 34% of Middle East’s total heat demand in 2030 and 89% in 2050. • Energy efficiency measures can lower specific process heat consumption and can therefore limit demand increase in a region with a fast growing population and increasing industrial activities. • For direct heating, solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well as geothermal energy are increasingly substituting for fossil fuel-fired systems. • The introduction of strict efficiency measures e.g. via ambitious support programs for renewable heating systems are needed to achieve economies of scale within the next 5 to 10 years. Table 5.32 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heating in Middle East over time. Up to 2020 solar energy becomes the main contributor of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share of geothermal energy and heat pumps can significantly reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. table 5.32: middle east: renewable heating capacities under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW 2009 2020 2030 20 32 48 2040 2050 69 77 394 508 113 151 2,954 4,426 14 39 1,026 1,708 0 0 754 890 196 267 5,127 7,531 Biomass REF E[R] 20 100 203 Solar collectors Geothermal Hydrogen Total REF 5 62 90 E[R] 5 571 1,449 REF 1 3 7 E[R] 1 216 538 REF 0 0 0 E[R] 0 145 504 REF 27 97 146 E[R] 27 1,032 2,694 figure 5.77: middle east: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • HYDROGEN • GEOTHERMAL • SOLAR • BIOMASS FOSSIL 132 REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050 key results | MIDDLE EAST - HEATINGPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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