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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK eastern europe/eurasia GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA eastern europe/eurasia: energy demand by sector Combining the projections on population development, GDP growth and energy intensity results in future development 5 pathways for Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s final energy demand. These are shown in Figure 5.83 for the Reference and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under the Reference scenario, total primary energy demand increases by 46% from the current 47,166 PJ/a to 69,013 PJ/a in 2050. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, primary energy demand decreases by 21% compared to current consumption and it is expected to reach 37,240 PJ/a by 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is increase to decrease in both the industry sector, the residential and service sectors, as well in the transport sector (see Figure 5.84).Total electricity demand (final energy) will rise from 1,154 TWh/a to 2,122 TWh/a by the year 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures in the industry, residential and service sectors avoid the generation of about 743 TWh/a.This reduction can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors. figure 5.83: eastern europe/eurasia: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • •OTHER SECTORS • INDUSTRY TRANSPORT MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, heat demand is expected to decrease almost constantly (see Figure 5.86). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 10,028 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency gains by 2050. As a result of energy- related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards and ‘passive houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand. 138 REF E[R] 2009 REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050 key results | EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - DEMANDPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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