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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK eastern europe/eurasia GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA eastern europe/eurasia: heating supply Today, renewables meet 3% of Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s heat 5 demand,themaincontributioncomingfromtheuseofbiomass. The construction and expansion of district heating networks is a crucial prerequisite for the large scale utilisation of geothermal and solar thermal energy. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic development. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 45% of Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s total heat demand in 2030 and 91% in 2050. • Energy efficiency measures help to reduce the currently growing energy demand for heating by 42 % in 2050 (relative to the reference scenario), in spite of improving living standards. • In the industry sector solar collectors, geothermal energy (incl. heat pumps), and electricity and hydrogen from renewable sources are increasingly substituting for fossil fuel-fired systems. • A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications leads to a further reduction of CO2 emissions. Table 5.38 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heat Eastern Europe/Eurasia over time. Up to 2020 biomass will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share of geothermal heat pumps will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA table 5.38: eastern europe/eurasia: renewable heating capacities under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW 2009 2020 2030 2040 523 635 756 886 523 1,799 3,098 3,659 3 6 10 14 3 678 1,450 1,961 7 7 10 58 REF 533 647 777 957 1,120 2050 1,025 3,643 18 2,237 Hydrogen REF E[R] 0 113 316 620 857 Biomass REF E[R] Solar REF collectors E[R] Geothermal REF E[R] 77 6,162 7 1,038 2,460 4,811 00000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • HYDROGEN • GEOTHERMAL • SOLAR • BIOMASS FOSSIL Total E[R] 533 3,628 7,324 11,051 12,900 figure 5.90: eastern europe/eurasia: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 142 REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] REF 2040 E[R] 2050 key results | EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - HEATINGPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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