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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK eastern europe/eurasia GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA eastern europe/eurasia: development of CO2 emissions Whilst Eastern Europe/Eurasia`s emissions of CO2 will increase by 5 43%between2009and2050undertheReferencescenario, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario they will decrease from 2,483 million tonnes in 2009 to 243 million tonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 7.3 tonnes to 0.7 tonne. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable energy in vehicles will reduce emissions in the transport sector. With a share of 43% of CO2, the power sector will be the largest sources of emissions in 2050. By 2050, Eastern Europe/Eurasia’s CO2 emissions are 94% below 1990 levels. eastern europe/eurasia: primary energy consumption Taking into account the assumptions discussed above, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.95. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primary energy demand will be lower by 46% in 2050. Around 78% of the remaining demand will be covered by renewable energy sources. The Energy [R]evolution version aims to phases out coal and oil as fast as technically and economically possible.This is made possible mainly by replacement of coal power plants with renewables and a fast introduction of very efficient electric vehicles in the transport sector to replace oil combustion engines.This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 36% in 2030 and 78% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out just after 2035. MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA figure 5.94: eastern europe/eurasia: development of CO2 emissions by sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) Mill t/a Million people 4,000 350 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 100 50 00 500 REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 REF E[R] 2050 • POPULATION DEVELOPMENT • SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLES • OTHER SECTORS • INDUSTRY • TRANSPORT POWER GENERATION 300 250 200 150 key results | EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION figure 5.95: eastern europe/eurasia: primary energy consumption under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ •OCEAN ENERGY • GEOTHERMAL • SOLAR • BIOMASS • WIND • HYDRO •NATURAL GAS • OIL • COAL NUCLEAR 146 REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050PDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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