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SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK

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SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK ( sustainable-world-energy-outlook )

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image NANLINIKANT BISWAS, FARMER AGE 43. FIFTEEN YEARS AGO NANLINIKANT’S FAMILY ONCE LIVED WHERE THE SEA IS NOW. THEY WERE AFFLUENT AND OWNED FOUR ACRES OF LAND. BUT RISING SEAWATER INCREASED THE SALINITY OF THE SOIL UNTIL THEY COULD NO LONGER CULTIVATE IT, KANHAPUR, ORISSA, INDIA. image A SOLAR DISH WHICH IS ON TOP OF THE SOLAR KITCHEN AT AUROVILLE,TAMIL NADU, INDIA. india: future investments in the heat sector Also in the heat sector the Energy [R]evolution scenario would require a major revision of current investment strategies in heating technologies. Especially the not yet so common solar and geothermal and heat pump technologies need enormous increase in installations, if these potentials are to be tapped for the heat sector. Installed capacity need to increase by the factor of 360 for solar thermal compared to 2009 and - if compared to the Reference scenario - by the factor of 130 for geothermal and heat pumps. Capacity of biomass technologies will remain a main pillar of heat supply. Renewable heating technologies are extremely variable, from low tech biomass stoves and unglazed solar collectors to very sophisticated enhanced geothermal systems and solar thermal district heating plants with seasonal storage.Thus it can only roughly be calculated, that the Energy [R]evolution scenario in total requires around $ 1,293 billion to be invested in renewable heating technologies until 2050 (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately $ 32 billion per year. figure 5.104: india: investments for renewable heat generation technologies under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario REF 2011 - 2050 Total $ 444 billion 1% SOLAR 6% HEAT PUMPS 93% BIOMASS 0% GEOTHERMAL E[R] 2011 - 2050 Total $ 1,293 billion 8% GEOTHERMAL 38% SOLAR 28% BIOMASS 26% HEAT PUMPS table 5.45: india: renewable heat generation capacities under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW 2030 2040 2050 5 2,176 2,127 2,082 1,954 1,699 1,333 0 0 0 23 65 120 11 21 37 452 669 927 4 9 14 62 100 141 2,191 2,157 2,132 2,491 2,533 2,521 Total REF E[R] 2,084 2,370 2009 2020 2,082 2,197 Biomass REF E[R] 2,082 2,173 Geothermal REF E[R] 0 11 0 0 3 6 Solar thermal REF E[R] 3 170 Heat pumps REF E[R] 0 17 0 1 2,084 2,205 153 © GP/DANIEL BELTRÁ © GP/JOHN NOVIS key results | INDIA - INVESTMENT

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