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image GREENPEACE DONATES A SOLAR POWER SYSTEM TO A COASTAL VILLAGE IN ACEH, INDONESIA, ONE OF THE WORST HIT AREAS BY THE TSUNAMI IN DECEMBER 2004. IN COOPERATION WITH UPLINK, A LOCAL DEVELOPMENT NGO, GREENPEACE OFFERED ITS EXPERTISE ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY AND INSTALLED RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATORS FOR ONE OF THE BADLY HIT VILLAGES BY THE TSUNAMI. image A WOMAN GATHERS FIREWOOD ON THE SHORES CLOSE TO THE WIND FARM OF ILOCOS NORTE, AROUND 500 KILOMETERS NORTH OF MANILA. non oecd asia: future costs of electricity generation Figure 5.114 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario significantly decreases future costs of electricity generation in Non OECD Asia compared to the Reference scenario. Because of the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generation costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 7.2 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version. Under the Reference scenario, on the other hand, unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 145 billion per year to more than $ 777 billion in 2050. Figure 5.114 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario helps Non OECD Asia to stabilise energy costs and relieve the economic pressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are 14% lower than in the Reference scenario, including estimated costs for efficiency measures. figure 5.114: non oecd asia: total electricity supply costs and specific electricity generation costs under two scenarios Bn$/a ct/kWh 800 20 non oecd asia: future investments in the power sector It would require $ 5,150 billion in investment for the Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately $ 129 billion annually or $ 88 billion more than in the Reference scenario ($ 1,645 billion). Under the Reference version, the levels of investment in conventional power plants add up to almost 47% while approximately 53% would be invested in renewable energy and cogeneration (CHP) until 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, Non OECD Asia would shift almost 97% of the entire investment towards renewables and cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share of power sector investment would be focused mainly on CHP plants.The average annual investment in the power sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would be approximately $ 129 billion. figure 5.115: non oecd asia: investment shares - reference scenario versus energy [r]evolution scenario 5 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 REF 2011 - 2050 Total $ 1,645 billion E[R] 2011 - 2050 Total $ 5,150 billion 2% CHP 5% NUCLEAR 51% RENEWABLES 42% FOSSIL 3% FOSSIL & NUCLEAR 5% CHP 00 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF) •‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES •REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF) ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R]) 2050 SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R]) 92% RENEWABLES 161 © GP/SIMANJUNTAK © GP/RIOS key results | NON OECD ASIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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