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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK non oecd asia GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA non oecd asia: heating supply Today, renewables provide 50% of Non OECD Asia’s heat 5 demand,themaincontributioncomingfrombiomass.Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic future development. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 55% of Non OECD Asia’s total heat demand in 2030 and 86% in 2050. • Energy efficiency measures will restrict the future heat demand in 2030 to an increase of 40% compared to 52% in the Reference scenario, in spite of improving living standards. • In the industry sector solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well as geothermal energy and hydrogen from renewable sources are increasingly substituted for conventional fossil-fired heating systems. • A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications leads to a further reduction of CO2 emissions. Table 5.50 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heating in Non OECD Asia over time. Up to 2020 biomass will remain the main contributors of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share of geothermal heat pumps will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. table 5.50: non oecd asia: renewable heating capacities under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW 2009 2020 5,173 5,489 5,173 4,930 4 37 4 734 GeothermalREF 00059 Biomass REF E[R] 2050 6,876 4,008 2030 5,691 4,748 1,314 0 0 2040 6,295 4,267 2,729 4,784 0 0 237 323 Solar REF collectors E[R] 77 1,978 134 3,739 190 5,038 figure 5.116: non oecd asia: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • HYDROGEN • GEOTHERMAL • SOLAR • BIOMASS FOSSIL Hydrogen Total E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] 0 526 0 0 0 0 5,177 5,526 5,177 6,191 5,769 8,040 10,973 14,154 6,434 7,076 162 REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050 key results | NON OECD ASIA - HEATINGPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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