SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK

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SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK ( sustainable-world-energy-outlook )

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image THE BATAAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANT MAY FINALLY OPEN BUT THANKFULLY ONLY AS A TOURIST ATTRACTION. ON JUNE 11, 2011. image WATER IS PUMPED FROM THE FLOODED INDUSTRIAL PARK IN BANGPA-IN AYUTTHAYA, THAILAND. OVER SEVEN MAJOR INDUSTRIAL PARKS IN THAILAND AND THOUSANDS OF FACTORIES HAVE BEEN CLOSED IN THE CENTRAL THAI PROVINCE OF AYUTTHAYA AND NONTHABURI WITH MILLIONS OF TONS OF RICE DAMAGED. THAILAND IS EXPERIENCING THE WORST FLOODING IN OVER 50 YEARS WHICH HAS AFFECTED MORE THAN NINE MILLION PEOPLE. non oecd asia: transport In 2050, the car fleet in Non OECD Asia will be significantly larger than today. Today, more medium to large-sized cars are driven in Non OECD Asia with an unusually high annual mileage. With growing individual mobility, an increasing share of small efficient cars is projected, with vehicle kilometres driven resembling industrialised countries averages. More efficient propulsion technologies, including hybrid-electric power trains, and lightweight construction, will help to limit the growth in total transport energy demand to a factor of 1.17, reaching 5,700 PJ/a in 2050. As Non OECD Asia already has a large fleet of electric vehicles, this will grow to the point where almost 37% of total transport energy is covered by electricity. By 2030 electricity will provide 15% of the transport sector’s total energy demand under the Energy [R]evolution scenario. Under both scenarios road transport volumes increases significantly. However, under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, the total energy demand for road transport increases from 4,588 PJ/a in 2009 to 4,856 PJ/a in 2050, compared to 11,514 PJ/a in the Reference case. table 5.53: non oecd asia: transport energy demand by mode under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (WITHOUT ENERGY FOR PIPELINE TRANSPORT) IN PJ/A Rail REF E[R] 2009 2020 58 82 58 98 4,588 6,439 4,588 5,430 114 192 114 193 127 160 127 154 4,887 6,874 4,887 5,873 2030 2040 2050 5 98 107 118 123 151 167 8,142 9,852 11,514 5,623 5,164 4,856 280 425 709 258 356 536 218 272 322 168 164 148 8,738 10,655 12,664 6,173 5,835 5,707 Road Domestic aviation Domestic navigation Total REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] REF E[R] figure 5.119: non oecd asia: final energy consumption for transport under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • HYDROGEN • ELECTRICITY BIOFUELS •NATURAL GAS •OIL PRODUCTS REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] REF 2040 2050 E[R] 165 © V. VILLAFRANCA/GP © A. PERAWONGMETHA/GP key results | NON OECD ASIA - TRANSPORT

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