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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK china GLOBAL SCENARIO china: heating supply OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA Today, renewables provide 23% of China’s energy demand for 5 heatsupply,themaincontributioncomingfrombiomass. Dedicated support instruments are required to ensure a dynamic future development. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, renewables provide 35% of China’s total heat demand in 2030 and 86% in 2050. • Energy efficiency measures will restrict the future energy demand for heat supply in 2030 to an increase of 15% compared to 29% in the Reference scenario, in spite of improving living standards. • In the industry sector solar collectors, biomass/biogas as well as geothermal energy are increasingly substituted for conventional fossil-fired heating systems. • A shift from coal and oil to natural gas in the remaining conventional applications leads to a further reduction of CO2 emissions. Table 5.56 shows the development of the different renewable technologies for heating in China over time. Up to 2020, biomass will remain the main contributor of the growing market share. After 2020, the continuing growth of solar collectors and a growing share of geothermal heat pumps will reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. table 5.56: china: renewable heating capacities under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario IN GW Biomass Solar collectors 2009 6,833 E[R] 6,833 REF 301 E[R] 301 2020 2030 6,246 4,953 8,054 7,984 504 631 2040 3,916 8,637 755 6,560 2050 3,597 7,949 842 7,676 REF 1,199 2,287 181 237 Geothermal Hydrogen REF 00000 REF 104 E[R] 104 288 6,125 336 10,424 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • • HYDROGEN • GEOTHERMAL • SOLAR • BIOMASS FOSSIL E[R] 0 Total REF 7,238 E[R] 7,238 737 2,259 0 0 102 543 6,931 5,821 4,959 4,775 9,991 12,530 21,424 26,592 figure 5.129: china: heat supply structure under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 172 REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050 key results | CHINA - HEATINGPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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