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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK china GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA china: development of CO2 emissions Whilst China’s emissions of CO2 will increase by 82% under the 5 Referencescenario,undertheEnergy[R]evolutionscenariothey will decrease from 6,880 million tonnes in 2009 to 860 million tonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will increase from 5.1 tonnes to 6.1 tonnes in 2030 and decrease afterward to 0.6 tonnes in 2050. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles will also significantly reduce emissions in the transport sector. With a share of 32% of CO2 emissions in 2050, the transport sector will be the largest energy related source of emissions. By 2050, China’s CO2 emissions are 38% of 1990 levels. china: primary energy consumption Taking into account the above assumptions, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.134. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 42% in 2050. Around 82% of the remaining demand (including non energy consumption) will be covered by renewable energy sources. The coal demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenario will peak by 2020 with 77,700 PJ/a compared to 65,400 PJ/a in 2009 and decrease afterwards to 4,400 PJ/a by 2050.This is made possible mainly by replacement of coal power plants with renewables after 20 rather than 40 years lifetime.This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 27% in 2030 and 82% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out just after 2045. figure 5.133: china: development of CO2 emissions by sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) Mill t/a 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Million people 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 00 REF E[R] 2009 REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050 • POPULATION DEVELOPMENT • SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & •OTHER SECTORS • INDUSTRY RENEWABLES key results | CHINA - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION figure 5.134: china: primary energy consumption under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ • •OCEAN ENERGY 176 REF 2009 E[R] REF 2015 E[R] REF 2020 E[R] REF 2030 E[R] REF 2040 E[R] REF 2050 E[R] • TRANSPORT POWER GENERATION • GEOTHERMAL SOLAR • BIOMASS • • WIND • HYDRO •NATURAL GAS • OIL • COAL NUCLEARPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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