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image SOLAR PANELS ON CONISTON STATION, NORTH WEST OF ALICE SPRINGS, NORTHERN TERRITORY. image THE “CITIZENS’ WINDMILL” IN AOMORI, NORTHERN JAPAN. PUBLIC GROUPS, SUCH AS CO-OPERATIVES, ARE BUILDING AND RUNNING LARGE-SCALE WIND TURBINES IN SEVERAL CITIES AND TOWNS ACROSS JAPAN. oecd asia oceania: future costs of electricity generation Figure 5.140 shows that the introduction of renewable technologies under the Energy [R]evolution scenario slightly increases the costs of electricity generation in OECD Asia Oceania compared to the Reference scenario.This difference will be less than $ 2.3 cent/kWh up to 2030, however. Because of the lower CO2 intensity of electricity generation, electricity generation costs will become economically favourable under the Energy [R]evolution scenario and by 2050 costs will be $ 7.2 cents/kWh below those in the Reference version. Under the Reference scenario, the unchecked growth in demand, an increase in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total electricity supply costs rising from today’s $ 168 billion per year to more than $ 436 billion in 2050. Figure 5.140 shows that the Energy [R]evolution scenario not only complies with OECD Asia Oceania’s CO2 reduction targets but also helps to stabilise energy costs. Increasing energy efficiency and shifting energy supply to renewables lead to long term costs for electricity supply that are 17% lower in 2050 than in the Reference scenario. figure 5.140: oecd asia oceania: total electricity supply costs and specific electricity generation costs under two scenarios Bn$/a ct/kWh 500 18 450 16 400 350 300 10 250 200 150 100 4 2 00 $ 36 billion annually more than in the Reference scenario ($ 1,475 billion). Under the Reference version, the levels of investment in conventional power plants add up to almost 67% while approximately 33% would be invested in renewable energy 5 and cogeneration (CHP) until 2050. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, however, OECD Asia Oceania would shift almost 90% of the entire investment towards renewables and cogeneration. Until 2030, the fossil fuel share of power sector investment would be focused mainly on CHP plants. The average annual investment in the power sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario between today and 2050 would be approximately $ 73 billion. Because renewable energy except biomasss has no fuel costs, the fuel cost savings in the Energy [R]evolution scenario reached a total of $ 1,320 billion up to 2050, or $ 33 billion per year. The total fuel cost savings therefore would cover 90% of the total additional investments compared to the Reference scenario.These renewable energy sources would then go on to produce electricity without any further fuel costs beyond 2050, while the costs for coal and gas will continue to be a burden on national economies. figure 5.141: oecd asia oceania: investment shares - reference scenario versus energy [r]evolution scenario 2009 2015 2020 2030 2040 SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (REF) •‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES •REFERENCE SCENARIO (REF) ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION (E[R]) oecd asia oceania: future investments in the power sector 2050 SPEC. ELECTRICITY GENERATION COSTS (E[R]) 14 12 8 6 REF 2011 - 2050 Total $ 1,475 billion E[R] 2011 - 2050 Total $ 2,930 billion 3% CHP 30% RENEWABLES 26% FOSSIL 41% NUCLEAR 10% FOSSIL 50 10% 80% RENEWABLES CHP It would require $ 2,930 billion in investment in the power sector for the Energy [R]evolution scenario to become reality (including investments for replacement after the economic lifetime of the plants) - approximately $ 1,450 billion or 181 © GP/SOLNESS © GP/NAOMI TOYODA key results | OECD ASIA OCEANIA - ELECTRICITY GENERATIONPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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