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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK oecd asia oceania GLOBAL SCENARIO OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA oecd asia oceania: development of CO2 emissions While CO2 emissions in OECD Asia Oceania will decrease by 11% 5 intheReferencescenario,undertheEnergy[R]evolutionscenario they will decrease from 2,042 million tonnes in 2009 to 164 million tonnes in 2050. Annual per capita emissions will drop from 10.2 tonnes to 5.8 tonnes in 2030 and 0.9 tonne in 2050. In spite of the phasing out of nuclear energy and increasing demand, CO2 emissions will decrease in the electricity sector. In the long run efficiency gains and the increased use of renewable electricity in vehicles will even reduce emissions in the transport sector.With a share of 31% of CO2 emissions in 2050, the power sector will drop below transport as the largest sources of emissions. By 2050, OECD Asia Oceania’s CO2 emissions are 10% of 1990 levels. oecd asia oceania: primary energy consumption Taking into account the assumptions discussed above, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.147. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 39% in 2050. The Energy [R]evolution version phases out coal and oil about 10 to 15 years faster than the previous Energy [R]evolution scenario published in 2010.This is made possible mainly by replacement of coal power plants with renewables and a faster introduction of very efficient electric vehicles in the transport sector to replace oil combustion engines.This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 39% in 2030 and 79% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out just after 2030. MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA figure 5.146: oecd asia oceania: development of CO2 emissions by sector under the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) Mill t/a 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Million people 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 500 00 key results | OECD ASIA OCEANIA - CO2 EMISSIONS & ENERGY CONSUMPTION 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 PJ/a 0 • ‘EFFICIENCY’ •OCEAN ENERGY • GEOTHERMAL • SOLAR • BIOMASS • WIND • HYDRO •NATURAL GAS • OIL • COAL NUCLEAR REF E[R] 2009 REF E[R] REF E[R] 2015 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050 • POPULATION DEVELOPMENT •SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLES •OTHER SECTORS • INDUSTRY • TRANSPORT figure 5.147: oecd asia oceania: primary energy consumption under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) POWER GENERATION 186 REF 2009 E[R] REF E[R] 2015 REF E[R] 2020 REF E[R] 2030 REF E[R] 2040 REF E[R] 2050PDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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