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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK Several additional aspects of energy employment have been included which were not calculated in previous Energy [R]evolution reports. Employment in nuclear decommissioning has been calculated, and a partial estimate of employment in the heat sector is included. The large number of assumptions required to make calculations mean that employment numbers are indicative only, especially for regions where little data exists. However, within the limits of data availability, the figures presented are representative of employment levels under the two scenarios. 6 relatively low productivity at present (700, 900, and 2000 tons per worker per year respectively). The calculation of employment per PJ in coal mining draws on data from national statistics, combined with production figures from the IEA69 or other sources. Data was collected for as many major coal producing countries as possible, with data obtained for more than 80% of world coal production. In China, India, and Russia, the changes in productivity over the last 7 to 15 years were used to derive an annual improvement trend, which has been used to project a reduction in the employment factors for coal mining over the study period. In China and Eastern Europe/Eurasia a lower employment factor is also used for increases in coal consumption, as it is assumed that expansion will occur in the more efficient mining areas. China is a special case. While average productivity of coal per worker is currently low (700 tons per employee per year) this is changing. Some new highly mechanised mines opening in China have productivity of 30,000 tons per person per year.70 It is assumed that any increase in coal production locally will come from the new type of mine, so the lower employment factor is used for additional consumption which is produced domestically. Russia accounts for more than half of the total coal production in Eastern Europe/ Eurasia. Productivity is much higher there than some other regions, and is improving year by year. It is assumed that expansion of coal production in the region will be at the current level of productivity in Russia, and that overall productivity will continue the upward trend of the last 20 years. 6.2 employment factors “Employment factors” are used to calculate how many jobs are required per unit of electrical or heating capacity, or per unit of fuel. They take into account jobs in manufacturing, construction, operation and maintenance and fuel.Table 6.2 lists the employment factors used in the calculations.These factors are usually from OECD countries, as this is where there is most data, although local factors are used wherever possible. For job calculations in non OECD regions, a regional adjustment is used where a local factor is not available. Employment factors were derived with regional detail for coal mining, because coal is currently so dominant in the global energy supply, and because employment per ton varies enormously by region. In Australia, for example, coal is extracted at an average of 13,800 tons per person per year using highly mechanised processes while in Europe the average coal miner is responsible for only 2,000 tonnes per year. India, China, and Russia have table 6.2: summary of employment factors used in global analysis 2012 FUEL Coal Gas Nuclear Biomass Hydro-large Hydro-small Wind onshore Wind offshore PV Geothermal Solar thermal Ocean Geothermal - heat Solar - heat Nuclear decommissioning Combined heat and power CONSTRUCTION & INSTALLATION Job years/MW MANUFACTURING OPERATION & MAINTENANCE Jobs/MW Jobs/MW FUEL – PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND Jobs/PJ regional 22 0.001 jobs per GWh (final energy demand) 32 7.7 1.7 14 14 6.0 15 2.5 7.1 11 6.8 8.9 9.0 3.0 jobs/ MW (construction and manufacturing 7.4 jobs/ MW (construction and manufacturing 0.95 jobs per MW decommissioned 3.5 0.1 1.0 0.08 1.3 0.3 2.9 1.5 1.5 0.3 5.5 2.4 6.1 0.2 11 0.2 6.9 0.3 3.9 0.4 4.0 0.5 1.0 0.32 CHP technologies use the factor for the technology, i.e. coal, gas, biomass, factor of 1.5 for O&M only. geothermal, etc, increased by a note For details of sources and derivation of factors please see Rutovitz and Harris, 2012. 190 references 69 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY STATISTICS, AVAILABLE FROM HTTP://WWW.IEA.ORG/STATS/INDEX.ASP 70 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY. 2007. WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK, PAGE 337. future employment | EMPLOYMENT FACTORSPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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