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6.3 regional adjustments More details of all the regional adjustments, including their derivation, can be found in the detailed methodology document.71 6.3.1 regional job multipliers The employment factors used in this model for all processes apart from coal mining reflect the situation in the OECD regions, which are typically wealthier.The regional multiplier is applied to make the jobs per MW more realistic for other parts of the world. In developing countries it typically means more jobs per unit of electricity because of more labour intensive practices.The multipliers change over the study period in line with the projections for GDP per worker.This reflects the fact that as prosperity increases, labour intensity tends to fall. The multipliers are shown in Table 6.4. 6.3.2 local employment factors Local employment factors are used where possible. Region specific factors are: • Africa: solar heating (factor for total employment), nuclear, and hydro – factor for operations and maintenance, and coal – all factors. • China: solar heating, coal fuel supply. • Eastern Europe/Eurasia: factor for gas and coal fuel supply. • OECD Americas: factor for gas and coal fuel jobs, and for solar thermal power. • OECD Europe: factor for solar thermal power and for coal fuel supply. • India: factor for solar heating and for coal fuel supply. image A WORKER SURVEYS THE EQUIPMENT AT ANDASOL 1 SOLAR POWER STATION, WHICH IS EUROPE’S FIRST COMMERCIAL PARABOLIC TROUGH SOLAR POWER PLANT. ANDASOL 1 WILL SUPPLY UP TO 200,000 PEOPLE WITH CLIMATE-FRIENDLY ELECTRICITY AND SAVE ABOUT 149,000 TONNES OF CARBON DIOXIDE PER YEAR COMPARED WITH A MODERN COAL POWER PLANT. 6.3.3 local manufacturing and fuel production Some regions do not manufacture the equipment needed for installation of renewable technologies, for example wind turbines or solar PV panels.The model takes into account a projection of the percentage of renewable technology which is made locally.The jobs in manufacturing components for export are counted in the region where they originate.The same applies to coal and gas fuels, because they are traded internationally, so the model shows the region where the jobs are likely to be located. 6.3.4 learning adjustments or ‘decline factors’ This accounts for the projected reduction in the cost of renewable over time, as technologies and companies become more efficient and production processes are scaled up. Generally, jobs per MW would fall in parallel with this trend. table 6.4: regional multipliers 6 World average OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Asia Oceania India China Africa Eastern Europe/Eurasia Non OECD Asia Latin America Middle east 3.9 40 3.4 55 1.4 12 26 World average OECD Africa China Eastern Europe/Eurasia India Latin America Middle east Non OECD Asia 2010 2015 2020 2035 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.6 2.6 1.9 1.5 1.0 3.0 2.3 1.9 1.4 3.6 2.8 2.4 1.5 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.5 table 6.3: employment factors used for coal fuel supply (MINING AND ASSOCIATED JOBS) EMPLOYMENT FACTOR (EXISTING GENERATION) Jobs per PJ 23 3.9 40 3.4 55 68 12 56 Use world average as no employment data available Use world average as no employment data available Use world average as no employment data available note Derived from ILO (2010) Key Indicators of the Labour Market, seventh Edition software, with growth in GDP per capita derived from IEA World Energy Outlook 2011. EMPLOYMENT FACTOR (NEW GENERATION) Jobs per PJ AVERAGE ANNUAL PRODUCTIVITY INCREASE 2010 - 2030 Jobs per PJ 5% 5.5% 4% references 71 JAY RUTOVITZ AND STEPHEN HARRIS. 2012. CALCULATING GLOBAL ENERGY SECTOR JOBS: 2012 METHODOLOGY. 191 © GP/MARKEL REDONDO future employment | REGIONAL ADJUSTMENTSPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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