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6.4 fossil fuels and nuclear energy - employment, investment, and capacities 6.4.1 employment in coal Jobs in the coal sector drop signficantly in both the Reference scenario and the Energy [R]evolution scenario. In the Reference scenario coal employment drops by 2.1 million jobs between 2015 and 2030, despite generation from coal nearly doubling. Coal employment in 2010 was close to 9 million, so this is in addition to a loss of 2 million jobs from 2010 to 2015. This is because employment per ton in coal mining is falling dramtatically as efficiencies increase around the world. For example, one worker in the new Chinese ‘super mines’ is expected to produce 30,000 tons of coal per year, compared to current average productivity across all mines in China close to 700 tons per year, and average productivity per worker in North America close to 12,000 tons. Unsurprisingly, employment in the coal sector in the Energy [R]evolution scenario falls even more, reflecting a reduction in coal generation from 41% to 19% of all generation, on top of the increase in efficiency. image A WORKER STANDS BETWEEN WIND TURBINE ROTORS AT GANSU JINFENG WIND POWER EQUIPMENT CO. LTD. IN JIUQUAN, GANSU PROVINCE, CHINA. Coal jobs in both scenarios include coal used for heat supply. 6.4.2 employment in gas, oil and diesel Employment in the gas sector stays relatatively stable in the Reference scenario, while gas generation increases by 35%. In the Energy [R]evolution scenario generation is reduced by 5% between 2015 and 2030. Employment in the sector also falls, reflecting both increasing efficiencies and the reduced generation. Gas sector jobs in both scenarios include heat supply jobs from gas. 6.4.3 employment in nuclear energy 6 table 6.6: fossil fuels and nuclear energy: capacity, investment and direct jobs REFERENCE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION 2020 2030 4,074 2,123 5,281 3,891 269 270 1,629 1,206 8,713 6,422 33% 19% -21 -51 32,097 32,256 1,828 1,722 6,299 5,811 24% 18% -6 -13 49,891 28,590 225 75 1,623 557 6% 2% -18 -15 33,593 152 Employment UNIT Coal thousands 2015 6,705 5,162 500 1,985 10,092 41% 71.7 140,007 1,881 6,120 25% 42 92,067 420 2,949 12% 4.5 98,602 2020 5,820 5,296 413 2,262 11,868 42% 55.5 136,848 2,016 6,721 24% 26 79,250 485 3,495 12% 12.9 153,657 105,303 28,201 Employment in nuclear energy falls by 42% in the Reference scenario between 2015 and 2030, while generation increases by 34%. In the Energy [R]evolution generation is reduced by 75% between 2015 and 2030, representing a virtual phase out of nuclear power. Employment in Energy [R]evolution increases slightly, and in 2020 and 2030 is very simliar in both scenarios. This is because jobs in nuclear decomissioning replace jobs in generation. It is expected these jobs will persist for 20 - 30 years. Gas, oil & diesel Nuclear energy COAL Energy Installed capacity Total generation Share of total supply Market and investment Annual increase in capacity Annual investment GAS, OIL & DIESEL Energy Installed capacity Total generation Share of total supply Market and investment Annual increase in capacity Annual investment NUCLEAR Energy Installed capacity Total generation Share of total supply Market and investment Annual increase in capacity Annual investment thousands thousands GW TWh % GW $ GW TWh % GW % GW TWh % GW $ 2030 2015 4,598 5,513 5,440 5,358 290 258 2,751 1,732 15,027 9,333 42% 39% 49 23 147,086 32,018 2,283 1,858 8,248 6,149 23% 26% 25 28 78,650 82,522 539 314 3,938 2,226 11% 9% 5.4 -17 193 © GP/MARKEL REDONDO future employment | FOSSIL FUELS AND NUCLEAR ENERGYPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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