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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK table 8.2: overview of the resulting emissions if all fossil resources were burned POTENTIAL EMISSIONS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE USE OF FOSSIL RESERVES AND RESOURCES. ALSO ILLUSTRATED IS THEIR POTENTIAL FOR ENDANGERING THE 2oC GUARD RAIL. THIS RISK IS EXPRESSED AS THE FACTOR BY WHICH, ASSUMING COMPLETE EXHAUSTION OF THE RESPECTIVE RESERVES AND RESOURCES, THE RESULTANT CO2 EMISSIONS WOULD EXCEED THE 750 GT C02 BUDGET PERMISSIBLE FROM FOSSIL SOURCES UNTIL 2050. HISTORICAL PRODUCTION UP TO 2008 (GT CO2) 8 Coal Total fossil fuels 1,411 source GEA, 2011. PRODUCTION IN 2008 (GT CO2) RESERVES (GT CO2) 493 295 339 RESOURCES (GT CO2) FURTHER DEPOSITS (GT CO2) FACTOR BY WHICH THESE EMISSIONS ALONE EXCEED THE (GT CO2) 2oC EMISSIONS BUDGET FOSSIL FUEL Conventional oil Unconventional oil Conventional gas Unconventional gas 505 39 192 9 13 2 7 1 386 - 879 1 2,640 3,649 6,584 9 455 - 794 1 TOTAL RESERVES, RESOURCES AND FURTHER OCCURENCES 2,405 666 14 1,970 3,197 27,724 41,277 - 47,954 31,373 33,325 44 43,247 58 84,829 113 36 5,502 box 8.1: the energy [r]evolution fossil fuel pathway The Energy [R]evolution scenario will phase-out fossil fuel not simply as they are depleted, but to achieve a greenhouse gas reduction pathway required to avoid dangerous climate change. Decisions new need to avoid a “lock-in” situation meaning that investments in new oil production will make it more difficult to change to a renewable energy pathway in the future. Scenario development shows that the Energy [R]evolution can be made without any new oil exploration and production investments in the arctic or deep sea wells. Unconventional oil such as Canada’s tars and or Australia’s shale oil is not needed to guarantee the supply oil until it is phased out under the Energy [R]evolution scenario (see chapter 3). 8.1 oil without analysis or verification. Moreover, as there is no agreed definition of reserves or standard reporting practice, these figures usually represent different physical and conceptual magnitudes. Confusing terminology - ‘proved’, ‘probable’, ‘possible’, ‘recoverable’, ‘reasonable certainty’ - only adds to the problem. Historically, private oil companies have consistently underestimated their reserves to comply with conservative stock exchange rules and through natural commercial caution. Whenever a discovery was made, only a portion of the geologist’s estimate of recoverable resources was reported; subsequent revisions would then increase the reserves from that same oil field over time. National oil companies, mostly represented by OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries), have taken a very different approach.They are not subject to any sort of accountability and their reporting practices are even less clear. In the late 1980s, the OPEC countries blatantly overstated their reserves while competing for production quotas, which were allocated as a proportion of the reserves. Although some revision was needed after the companies were nationalised, between 1985 and 1990, OPEC countries increased their apparent joint reserves by 82%. Not only were these dubious revisions never corrected, but many of these countries have reported untouched reserves for years, even if no sizeable discoveries were made and production continued at the same pace. Additionally, the Former Soviet Union’s oil and gas reserves have been overestimated by about 30% because the original assessments were later misinterpreted. Whilst private companies are now becoming more realistic about the extent of their resources, the OPEC countries hold by far the majority of the reported reserves, and their information is as unsatisfactory as ever.Their conclusions should therefore be treated with considerable caution.To fairly estimate the world’s oil resources would require a regional assessment of the mean backdated (i.e. ‘technical’) discoveries. Oil is the lifeblood of the modern global economy, as the effects of the supply disruptions of the 1970s made clear. It is the number one source of energy, providing about one third of the world’s needs and the fuel employed almost exclusively for essential uses such as transportation. However, a passionate debate has developed over the ability of supply to meet increasing consumption, a debate obscured by poor information and stirred by recent soaring prices. 8.1.1 the reserves chaos Public information about oil and gas reserves is strikingly inconsistent, and potentially unreliable for legal, commercial, historical and sometimes political reasons.The most widely available and quoted figures, those from the industry journals Oil and Gas Journal and World Oil, have limited value as they report the reserve figures provided by companies and governments 210 energy resources and security of supply | FOSSIL FUELSPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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