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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK table 8.3: assumptions on fossil fuel use in the energy [r]evolution scenario FOSSIL FUEL Oil Reference (PJ/a) Reference (million barrels/a) E[R] (PJ/a) E[R] (million barrels/a) Gas Reference (PJ/a) Reference (billion cubic metres = 10E9m/a) E[R] (PJ/a) 8 E[R] (billion cubic metres = 10E9m/a) Coal Reference (PJ/a) Reference (million tonnes) E[R] (PJ/a) E[R] (million tonnes) 8.4 nuclear 2009 151,168 24,701 151,168 24,701 107,498 2,829 107,498 2,829 142,460 7,808 142,460 7,808 2015 167,159 27,314 151,996 24,836 121,067 3,186 120,861 3,181 169,330 8,957 154,932 8,197 2020 173,236 28,306 133,712 21,848 131,682 3,465 124,069 3,265 186,742 9,633 142,833 7,119 2030 2040 185,993 197,522 30,391 32,275 95,169 53,030 15,550 8,665 155,412 179,878 4,090 4,734 106,228 73,452 2,795 1,933 209,195 224,487 10,349 10,879 105,219 58,732 4,707 2,556 2050 211,365 34,537 29,942 4,893 195,804 5,153 35,557 936 226,245 10,880 19,484 846 Uranium, the fuel used in nuclear power plants, is a finite resource whose economically available reserves are limited. Its distribution is almost as concentrated as oil and does not match global consumption. Five countries - Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia and Niger - control three quarters of the world’s supply. As a significant user of uranium, however, Russia’s reserves will be exhausted within ten years. Secondary sources, such as old deposits, currently make up nearly half of worldwide uranium reserves. However, these will soon be used up. Mining capacities will have to be nearly doubled in the next few years to meet current needs. A joint report by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency76 estimates that all existing nuclear power plants will have used up their nuclear fuel, employing current technology, within less than 70 years. Given the range of scenarios for the worldwide development of nuclear power, it is likely that uranium supplies will be exhausted sometime between 2026 and 2070.This forecast includes the use of mixed oxide fuel (MOX), a mixture of uranium and plutonium. 220 reference 76 ‘URANIUM 2003: RESOURCES, PRODUCTION AND DEMAND’. energy resources and security of supply | FOSSIL FUELSPDF Image | SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
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