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SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK

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SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK ( sustainable-world-energy-outlook )

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WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK A wide range of estimates is provided in the literature but studies have consistently found that the total global technical potential for renewable energy is substantially higher than both current and projected future global energy demand. Solar has the highest technical potential amongst the renewable sources, but substantial technical potential exists for all forms. (SRREN, May 2011) Taking into account the uncertainty of technical potential estimates, Figure 8.1 provides an overview of the technical potential of various renewable energy resources in the context of current global electricity and heat demand as well as global primary energy supply. Issues related to technology evolution, sustainability, resource availability, land use and other factors that relate to this technical potential are explored in the relevant chapters.The regional distribution of technical potential is addressed in map 8.7. The various types of energy cannot necessarily be added together 8 toestimateatotal,becauseeachtypewasestimated independently of the others (for example, the assessment did not take into account land use allocation; e.g. PV and concentrating solar power cannot occupy the same space even though a particular site is suitable for either of them). Given the large unexploited resources which exist, even without having reached the full development limits of the various technologies, the technical potential is not a limiting factor to expansion of renewable energy generation. It will not be necessary nor desirable to exploit the entire technical potential. Implementation of renewable energies must respect sustainability criteria in order to achieve a sound future energy supply. Public acceptance is crucial, especially bearing in mind that renewable energy technologies will be closer to consumers than today’s more centralised power plants. Without public acceptance, market expansion will be difficult or even impossible. In addition to the theoretical and technical potential discussions, this report also considers the economic potential of renewable energy sources that takes into account all social costs and assumes perfect information and the market potential of renewable energy sources. Market potential is often used in different ways. The general understanding is that market potential means the total amount of renewable energy that can be implemented in the market taking into account existing and expected real-world market conditions shaped by policies, availability of capital and other factors.The market potential may therefore in theory be larger than the economic potential.To be realistic, however, market potential analyses have to take into account the behaviour of private economic agents under specific prevailing conditions, which are of course partly shaped by public authorities.The energy policy framework in a particular country or region will have a profound impact on the expansion of renewable energies. figure 8.1: ranges of global technical potentials of renewable energy sources 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 10 0 Max (in EJ/yr) Min (in EJ/yr) source IPCC/SRREN. note Global heat demand, 2008: 164 EJ Global primary energy supply, 2008: 492 EJ Primary Energy BIOMASS DIRECT SOLAR ENERGY 500 49,837 50 1,575 RANGE OF ESTIMATES MAXIMUM SUMMARISED IN IPCC REPORT CHAPTERS 2-7 MINIMUM Global electricity demand, 2008: 61 EJ Electricity GEOTHERMAL HYDROPOWER OCEAN WIND ENERGY ENERGY ENERGY 1,109 52 331 580 312 118 50 7 85 10 RANGES OF GLOBAL TECHNICAL POTENTIALS OF RE SOURCES DERIVED FROM STUDIES PRESENTED IN CHAPTERS 2 THROUGH 7 IN THE IPCC REPORT. BIOMASS AND SOLAR ARE SHOWN AS PRIMARY ENERGY DUE TO THEIR MULTIPLE USES. NOTE THAT THE FIGURE IS PRESENTED IN LOGARITHMIC SCALE DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE OF ASSESSED DATA. 226 Heat GEOTHERMAL ENERGY energy resources and security of supply | FOSSIL FUELS global technical potential [EJ/yr, log scale]

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