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16 Chapter 1 Synopsis and Executive Summary 8. 9. Using coproduced hot water, available in large quantities at temperatures up to 100°C or more from existing oil and gas operations, it is possible to generate up to 11,000 MW of new e generating capacity with standard binarycycle technology, and increase hydrocarbon production by partially offsetting parasitic losses consumed during production. A cumulative capacity of more than 100,000 MWe from EGS can be achieved in the United States within 50 years with a modest, multiyear federal investment for RD&D in several field projects in the United States. Because the fielddemonstration program involves staged developments at different sites, committed support for an extended period will be needed to demonstrate the viability, robustness, and reproducibility of methods for stimulating viable, commercialsized EGS reservoirs at several locations. Based on the economic analysis we conducted as part of our study, a $300 million to $400 million investment over 15 years will be needed to make earlygeneration EGS power plant installations competitive in evolving U.S. electricity supply markets. These funds compensate for the higher capital and financing costs expected for earlygeneration EGS plants, which would be expected as a result of somewhat higher field development (drilling and stimulation) costs per unit of power initially produced. Higher generating costs, in turn, lead to higher perceived financial risk for investors with corresponding higherdebt interest rates and equity rates of return. In effect, the federal investment can be viewed as equivalent to an “absorbed cost” of deployment. In addition, investments in R&D will also be needed to reduce costs in future deployment of EGS plants. To a great extent, energy markets and government policies will influence the private sector’s interest in developing EGS technology. In today’s economic climate, there is reluctance for private industry to invest its funds without strong guarantees. Thus, initially, it is likely that government will have to fully support EGS fieldwork and supporting R&D. Later, as field sites are established and proven, the private sector will assume a greater role in cofunding projects – especially with government incentives accelerating the transition to independently financed EGS projects in the private sector. Our analysis indicates that, after a few EGS plants at several sites are built and operating, the technology will improve to a point where development costs and risks would diminish significantly, allowing the levelized cost of producing EGS electricity in the United States to be at or below market prices. Given these issues and growing concerns over longterm energy security, the federal government will need to provide funds directly or introduce other incentives in support of EGS as a longterm “public good,” similar to early federal investments in large hydropower dam projects and nuclear power reactors. Based on growing markets in the United States for clean, baseload capacity, the panel thinks that with a combined public/private investment of about $800 million to $1 billion over a 15year period, EGS technology could be deployed commercially on a timescale that would produce more than 100,000 MWe or 100 GWe of new capacity by 2050. This amount is approximately equivalent to the total R&D investment made in the past 30 years to EGS internationally, which is still less than the cost of a single, newgeneration, cleancoal power plant. The panel thinks that making such an investment now is appropriate and prudent, given the enormous potential of EGS and the technical progress that has been achieved so far in the field. Having EGS as an option will strengthen America’s energy security for the long term in a manner that complements other renewables, clean fossil, and nextgeneration nuclear.PDF Image | Synopsis and Executive Summary
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