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18 1.1 Motivation and Scope Chapter 1 Synopsis and Executive Summary Executive Summary The goal of this assessment is to provide an evaluation of geothermal energy as a major supplier of energy in the United States. An 18member assessment panel with broad experience and expertise was formed to conduct the study beginning in September 2005. The work evaluated three major areas of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS): 1. Magnitude and distribution of the EGS resource 2. Status and remaining requirements of EGS technology needed to demonstrate feasibility at a commercialscale 3. Economic projections of impact of EGS on U.S. energy supply to 2050 Although there have been earlier assessments of EGS technology and economics, none has been as comprehensive as this one – ranging from providing a detailed evaluation of the geothermal resource to analyzing evolving energy markets for EGS. Our group was able to review technical contributions and progress, spanning more than 30 years of field testing, as well as several earlier economic and resource estimates. Substantial progress has been made in developing and demonstrating certain components of EGS technology in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Japan, but further work is needed to establish the commercial viability of EGS for electrical power generation, cogeneration, and direct heat supply. Based on the analysis of experienced researchers, it is important to emphasize that while further advances are needed, none of the known technical and economic barriers limiting widespread development of EGS as a domestic energy source are considered to be insurmountable. Our assessment evaluates the status of EGS technology, details lessonslearned, and prioritizes R&D needs for EGS. It will inform the ongoing debate of how to provide a more sustainable and secure energy supply for Americans for the long term, without compromising our economic capacity and political and social stability, and while minimizing environmental impacts. Therefore, energy researchers and developers, utility analysts and executives, and government policy makers should find our report useful. The study addresses two critical questions facing the future of EGS: 1. Can EGS have a major impact on national energy supply? 2. How much investment in R&D is needed to realize that impact? One means of illustrating the potential of any alternative energy technology is to predict how a supply curve of energy costs vs. energy supply capacity would evolve as a result of moving down a learning curve and lowering capital costs. These positive economic effects reflect both R&D improvements to individual technology components, as well as lower risks and uncertainties in investments to deploy EGS by repeating the process at several field locations. In addition, given that the grade of the EGS resource varies widely in the United States, the supply curve analysis also indicates a gradual transition from deployment of higher to lowergrade resources.PDF Image | Synopsis and Executive Summary
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