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1.2 Defining EGS Chapter 1 Synopsis and Executive Summary 19 The panel has defined the impact threshold for EGS technology as being able to provide 100,000 MW of additional electrical capacity competitively by 2050. While we recognize that this specific goal is not part of the current DOE program, a 10% impact is a reasonable goal for EGS to become a major player as a domestic energy supply. Our assessment deals directly with the technical and economic feasibility of having EGS achieve this goal, emphasizing the quantitative requirements of both science and engineering in subsurface environments. We develop supply curves for EGS and lay out a rationale that specifies what technology and learning improvements will be needed to reduce risks and lower costs to a point where EGS could have a major impact on the U.S. energy supply. A key aspect of our work is to evaluate whether the costs of the additional R&D needed to demonstrate the technology at a commercial scale are low enough, and the potential energy security benefits high enough, to justify federal and private investment in EGS. This first chapter of our report summarizes our overall approach, as well as the main findings in the three focus areas. Included in this chapter are recommendations for research and development, regulatory and governmental policies, and evolving energy markets for EGS that would achieve this high level of impact on the U.S. energy supply. In general terms, geothermal energy consists of the thermal energy stored in the Earth’s crust. Thermal energy in the earth is distributed between the constituent host rock and the natural fluid that is contained in its fractures and pores at temperatures above ambient levels. These fluids are mostly water with varying amounts of dissolved salts; typically, in their natural in situ state, they are present as a liquid phase but sometimes may consist of a saturated, liquidvapor mixture or superheated steam vapor phase. The amounts of hot rock and contained fluids are substantially larger and more widely distributed in comparison to hydrocarbon (oil and gas) fluids contained in sedimentary rock formations underlying the United States. Geothermal fluids of natural origin have been used for cooking and bathing since before the beginning of recorded history; but it was not until the early 20th century that geothermal energy was harnessed for industrial and commercial purposes. In 1904, electricity was first produced using geothermal steam at the vapordominated field in Larderello, Italy. Since that time, other hydrothermal developments, such as the steam field at The Geysers, California; and the hotwater systems at Wairakei, New Zealand; Cerro Prieto, Mexico; and Reykjavik, Iceland; and in Indonesia and the Philippines, have led to an installed world electrical generating capacity of nearly 10,000 MWe and a directuse, nonelectric capacity of more than 100,000 MWt (thermal megawatts of power) at the beginning of the 21st century. The source and transport mechanisms of geothermal heat are unique to this energy source. Heat flows through the crust of the Earth at an average rate of almost 59 mW/m2 [1.9 x 102 Btu/h/ft2]. The intrusion of large masses of molten rock can increase this normal heat flow locally; but for most of the continental crust, the heat flow is due to two primary processes: 1. Upward convection and conduction of heat from the Earth’s mantle and core, and 2. Heat generated by the decay of radioactive elements in the crust, particularly isotopes of uranium, thorium, and potassium.PDF Image | Synopsis and Executive Summary
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