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100 Geothermal Well Model Predictions Synopsis and Executive Summary 119 30 10 JAS Oil and Gas Average JAS Ultra Deep Oil and Gas The Geysers Actual Imperial Valley Actual Other Hydrothermal Actual Hydrothermal Predicted HDR/EGS Actual HDR/EGS Predicted Soultz/Cooper Basin Wellcost Lite Model 3 1 Chapter 1 Oil and Gas Average Wellcost Lite Base Case Wellcost Lite Specific Wells 0.3 0.1 Depth (meters) (ft) 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 1. JAS = Joint Association Survey on Drilling Costs. 2. Well costs updated to US$ (yr. 2004) using index made from 3year moving average for each depth interval listed in JAS (19762004) for onshore, completed US oil and gas wells. A 17% inflation rate was assumed for years pre1976. 3. Ultra deep well data points for depths greater than 6 km are either individual wells or averages from a small number of wells listed in JAS (19942000). Figure 1.8 Completed oil, gas, and geothermal well costs as a function of depth in 2004 U.S.$, including estimated costs from the Wellcost Lite model. The red line provides average well costs for the base case used in the assessment. 4. “Other Hydrothermal Actual” data include some nonUS wells (Source: Mansure 2004). Completed Well Costs (Millions of Year 2004 US$) Nonetheless, given the scarcity of the geothermal well cost data compared to oil and gas wells, estimating statistically meaningful well costs at particular depths was not possible, so average costs were based on model predictions with a large degree of inherent uncertainty. Welldesign concepts and predictions for the deeper categories – 6,000 m, 7,500 m, and 10,000 m (19,680 ft, 24,600 ft, and 32,800 ft) – are obviously even more speculative, as there have been only two or three wells drilled close to depths of 10,000 m in the United States. Because of this, a conservative well design was used to reflect this higher uncertainty.PDF Image | Synopsis and Executive Summary
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