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Chapter 1 Synopsis and Executive Summary As a result of technology improvements from research and learning curve effects, we have found a strong positive correlation between the early deployment of new EGS facilities and the significant decline in the levelized cost of delivered electricity. This finding reflects not only the economies from new techniques and access to highervalue resources, but also the inevitable changes in availability and increased cost of conventional energy sources. For example, for hydroelectric power, reduced capacity occurs as a result of changed weather patterns and lower resource flows to existing facilities, as well as competition for the resource for alternate uses such as fish and wildlife, recreation, flood control, and capacity losses in dammed areas. In the case of coalfired electricity, increased busbar costs are predicted as result of three effects occurring over time: (i) fuel cost increases, (ii) higher capital costs of new facilities to satisfy higher efficiency and environmental quality goals, including capture and sequestration of CO2, and (iii) retirement of a significant number of lowcost units in the existing fleet due to their age or failure to comply with stiffer environmental standards. In the case of nuclear facilities, we anticipate a shortfall in nuclear supplies through the forecast period, reflecting retirement of the existing power reactors and difficulties in siting and developing new facilities. Without corresponding baseload replacements to meet existing and increased demand, the energy security of the United States will be compromised. It would seem prudent to invest now in developing a portfolio of options that could meet this need. To sum up, based on our technical and economic analysis, a reasonable investment in R&D and a proactive level of deployment in the next 10 years could make EGS a major player in supplying 10% of U.S. baseload electricity by 2050. Further, the analysis shows that the development of new EGS resources will not be limited by the size and location of the resource in the United States, and it will occur at a critical time when grid stabilization with both replacement and new baseload power will be needed. Adding the EGS option to the U.S. portfolio will reduce growth in natural gas consumption and slow the need for adding expensive natural gas facilities to handle imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). Although EGSproduced commercial power currently lacks a demonstration of its capability, this can be realized in the short term with a proven application of R&D support. The potential of EGS in evolving U.S. energy markets is large and warrants a comprehensive research and demonstration effort to move this technology to commercial viability, especially as the country approaches a period when gap between demand for and generation of electricity will most affect the existing system capacity. 133PDF Image | Synopsis and Executive Summary
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