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3. The planning context 3 The Planning Context The ability of South Africa to be successful in managing climate change through adaptation and mitigation depends on the choices the country makes with respect to both the implementation and the science and technology environment. These choices will also determine the international role South Africa is able to play. Using the two axes of “the favourability of the implementation environment” and “the state of climate change science and technology (S&T)”, four scenarios were developed, as illustrated in Figure 1. The favourability of the implementation environment is determined by the level of political will, the soundness and congruency of national climate change policy within the context of the national economic growth path, adequate funding and capacity for implementation. The state of climate change science and technology is determined by the robustness of research and development, the skills and capacities of human resources (i.e. the level of human capital), and the ability to bring new technologies and scientific solutions to market. According to Figure 1, in an enabling implementation environment that is combined with high levels of climate change research, technology development and human capital, South Africa has a good chance of being a regional and global leader.This is in both the policy arena as well as in the areas of knowledge production, capacity development, Figure 1: Scenarios for South Africa’s climate change response and the provision of technological and other solutions. In a favourable political environment that has a high priority placed on climate change responses but with low science and technology capacity, the responses will require imported knowledge and know-how, using technological solutions from abroad, implemented and managed by foreign expertise. An unfavourable implementation environment generates two challenging scenarios. In both cases, the country will not be able to implement effective adaptation and mitigation measures. In addition, South Africa may become an international outcast, having initially demonstrated strong leadership in the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and then failing to replicate that leadership in the implementation of national climate change response strategies. Strong science in an unfavourable political environment would mean that the knowledge generated would primarily be expressed in academic publications.This knowledge would be harvested abroad and converted into valuable technologies and products that South Africa would then import.This would further exacerbate the innovation chasm with the outflow of both intellectual capital and hard currency. Keeping these possibilities of the future in mind the paper examines the current state of climate change related science and technology in South Africa. Highly favourable implementation environment South Africa’s climate change success dependent on imported knowledge, skills and technology Successful climate change intervention and global leadership potential Inability to use South Africa’s potential - “climate change chasm” Low levels of climate change S&T High levels of climate change S&T South Africa - an international climate change luddite Weak implementation environment 9PDF Image | The Green Machine 4000
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